Renad Mansour
@renadmansour.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House. Research, analysis, and the occasional joke on the Middle East.
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Iraq goes to the polls on 11 November. But with few Iraqis expected to actually vote, the real contest lies in how power will be divided among the elites who dominate the system.
Read the new #IraqInitiative explainer by @renadmansour.bsky.social ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/iraq...
Read the new #IraqInitiative explainer by @renadmansour.bsky.social ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/iraq...
Iraq elections 2025: How votes are won and what the results could mean for Iraq’s fragile stability
Iraq goes to the polls on 11 November. But with few Iraqis expected to actually vote, the real contest lies in how power will be divided among the elites who dominate the system.
www.chathamhouse.org
October 23, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Iraq goes to the polls on 11 November. But with few Iraqis expected to actually vote, the real contest lies in how power will be divided among the elites who dominate the system.
Read the new #IraqInitiative explainer by @renadmansour.bsky.social ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/iraq...
Read the new #IraqInitiative explainer by @renadmansour.bsky.social ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/iraq...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
🌟NEW 'Take Five' from Director/CEO Juliet Dryden & Comms Intern Eve Harrison-Taylor 🌟
Our top 5 readings/podcasts on #internationalstudies from the last two weeks!
inc: @cfr.org @jamessweeney100.bsky.social @opendemocracy.net @renadmansour.bsky.social
& more: www.bisa.ac.uk/articles/tak...
Our top 5 readings/podcasts on #internationalstudies from the last two weeks!
inc: @cfr.org @jamessweeney100.bsky.social @opendemocracy.net @renadmansour.bsky.social
& more: www.bisa.ac.uk/articles/tak...
www.bisa.ac.uk
June 27, 2025 at 10:59 AM
🌟NEW 'Take Five' from Director/CEO Juliet Dryden & Comms Intern Eve Harrison-Taylor 🌟
Our top 5 readings/podcasts on #internationalstudies from the last two weeks!
inc: @cfr.org @jamessweeney100.bsky.social @opendemocracy.net @renadmansour.bsky.social
& more: www.bisa.ac.uk/articles/tak...
Our top 5 readings/podcasts on #internationalstudies from the last two weeks!
inc: @cfr.org @jamessweeney100.bsky.social @opendemocracy.net @renadmansour.bsky.social
& more: www.bisa.ac.uk/articles/tak...
Iraq has mostly stayed out of the regional conflict. But that stability now looks fragile. My take on what’s at stake 👇
'This moment of fragile calm is unlikely to endure. Iraq is on the brink of being drawn into what appears to be a transformative upheaval in the regional order,' writes @renadmansour.bsky.social.
Read the new analysis ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/06/iraq...
Read the new analysis ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/06/iraq...
Iraq’s fragile stability is threatened by a shifting Middle Eastern order
The region’s balance of power is being violently upended. It will be difficult for Iraq to avoid being drawn into the upheaval.
www.chathamhouse.org
June 26, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Iraq has mostly stayed out of the regional conflict. But that stability now looks fragile. My take on what’s at stake 👇
To the war cheerleaders who believe military escalation will bring clear, positive endgames for Iran/the region; if Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t teach you, history has a few more lessons.
A timely episode on The History of Bad Ideas: 'The Decisive Battle'
www.ppfideas.com/episodes/the...
A timely episode on The History of Bad Ideas: 'The Decisive Battle'
www.ppfideas.com/episodes/the...
The History of Bad Ideas: The Decisive Battle
196
www.ppfideas.com
June 22, 2025 at 6:23 PM
To the war cheerleaders who believe military escalation will bring clear, positive endgames for Iran/the region; if Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t teach you, history has a few more lessons.
A timely episode on The History of Bad Ideas: 'The Decisive Battle'
www.ppfideas.com/episodes/the...
A timely episode on The History of Bad Ideas: 'The Decisive Battle'
www.ppfideas.com/episodes/the...
Why does peacebuilding keep failing? Because it wasn’t built for today’s conflict economies.
We trace how gold from Sudan, fuel from Iran and migrant smuggling via Libya connect profit-driven conflicts across the Middle East & Africa.
Our
@ChathamHouse
report:🧵👇
We trace how gold from Sudan, fuel from Iran and migrant smuggling via Libya connect profit-driven conflicts across the Middle East & Africa.
Our
@ChathamHouse
report:🧵👇
🚨 PUBLICATION ALERT 🚨
A new report, the culmination of 5 years of the @chathamhouse.org and XCEPT research initiative, examines why peacebuilding often fails to address the chaotic realities of modern conflicts. 🧵
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/06/why-...
A new report, the culmination of 5 years of the @chathamhouse.org and XCEPT research initiative, examines why peacebuilding often fails to address the chaotic realities of modern conflicts. 🧵
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/06/why-...
Why peacebuilding fails and what to do about it
Evidence from conflict economies in the Middle East and Africa
www.chathamhouse.org
June 12, 2025 at 7:02 AM
Why does peacebuilding keep failing? Because it wasn’t built for today’s conflict economies.
We trace how gold from Sudan, fuel from Iran and migrant smuggling via Libya connect profit-driven conflicts across the Middle East & Africa.
Our
@ChathamHouse
report:🧵👇
We trace how gold from Sudan, fuel from Iran and migrant smuggling via Libya connect profit-driven conflicts across the Middle East & Africa.
Our
@ChathamHouse
report:🧵👇
Join us tomorrow at Chatham House for the launch of our latest paper on conflict economies in the Middle East and Africa, exploring why today’s conflicts are more protracted and harder to resolve.
Register to attend in person here 👇
Register to attend in person here 👇
📢 NEW EVENT: Navigating protracted conflicts in a multi-aligned world
This half-day event follows the conclusion of the @chathamhouse.org XCEPT research initiative.
📅 12/6
⏰ 9.00 - 14.00 BST
📍 Chatham House
For further information and to register ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
This half-day event follows the conclusion of the @chathamhouse.org XCEPT research initiative.
📅 12/6
⏰ 9.00 - 14.00 BST
📍 Chatham House
For further information and to register ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
Navigating protracted conflicts in a multi-aligned world
Following the conclusion of the Chatham House XCEPT research initiative, this event unpacks key findings and explores how policymakers can better respond to the complex realities of a multi-aligned gl...
www.chathamhouse.org
June 11, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Join us tomorrow at Chatham House for the launch of our latest paper on conflict economies in the Middle East and Africa, exploring why today’s conflicts are more protracted and harder to resolve.
Register to attend in person here 👇
Register to attend in person here 👇
Reposted by Renad Mansour
📢 NEW EVENT: Navigating protracted conflicts in a multi-aligned world
This half-day event follows the conclusion of the @chathamhouse.org XCEPT research initiative.
📅 12/6
⏰ 9.00 - 14.00 BST
📍 Chatham House
For further information and to register ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
This half-day event follows the conclusion of the @chathamhouse.org XCEPT research initiative.
📅 12/6
⏰ 9.00 - 14.00 BST
📍 Chatham House
For further information and to register ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
Navigating protracted conflicts in a multi-aligned world
Following the conclusion of the Chatham House XCEPT research initiative, this event unpacks key findings and explores how policymakers can better respond to the complex realities of a multi-aligned gl...
www.chathamhouse.org
May 14, 2025 at 9:48 AM
📢 NEW EVENT: Navigating protracted conflicts in a multi-aligned world
This half-day event follows the conclusion of the @chathamhouse.org XCEPT research initiative.
📅 12/6
⏰ 9.00 - 14.00 BST
📍 Chatham House
For further information and to register ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
This half-day event follows the conclusion of the @chathamhouse.org XCEPT research initiative.
📅 12/6
⏰ 9.00 - 14.00 BST
📍 Chatham House
For further information and to register ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
📣 Announcing the 2025 #IraqInitiative Conference!
Join us on 1 October @chathamhouse.org & online for our 7th annual conference to explore how Iraq can secure more lasting stability and economic resilience in an era of regional and global uncertainty.
Join us on 1 October @chathamhouse.org & online for our 7th annual conference to explore how Iraq can secure more lasting stability and economic resilience in an era of regional and global uncertainty.
April 3, 2025 at 2:19 PM
📣 Announcing the 2025 #IraqInitiative Conference!
Join us on 1 October @chathamhouse.org & online for our 7th annual conference to explore how Iraq can secure more lasting stability and economic resilience in an era of regional and global uncertainty.
Join us on 1 October @chathamhouse.org & online for our 7th annual conference to explore how Iraq can secure more lasting stability and economic resilience in an era of regional and global uncertainty.
Reposted by Renad Mansour
📺 'Because of the relative stability in the last few years in Iraq, this project presents an opportunity to gain some autonomy and to gain some power.'
@renadmansour.bsky.social speaks to @wsj.com about Iraq's plans to construct an alternative to the Suez Canal ⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OypN...
@renadmansour.bsky.social speaks to @wsj.com about Iraq's plans to construct an alternative to the Suez Canal ⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OypN...
How Iraq’s $17B Megaproject Plans to Bypass the Suez Canal | WSJ Breaking Ground
YouTube video by The Wall Street Journal
www.youtube.com
March 14, 2025 at 2:35 PM
📺 'Because of the relative stability in the last few years in Iraq, this project presents an opportunity to gain some autonomy and to gain some power.'
@renadmansour.bsky.social speaks to @wsj.com about Iraq's plans to construct an alternative to the Suez Canal ⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OypN...
@renadmansour.bsky.social speaks to @wsj.com about Iraq's plans to construct an alternative to the Suez Canal ⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OypN...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Webinar: The future of Iraq–US relations under Trump
Join @renadmansour.bsky.social, Krikor Der-Hagopian, Mike Knights and Sanam Vakil for a virtual #IraqInitiative discussion.
Watch LIVE ⤵️
www.facebook.com/CHMENAProg/v...
Join @renadmansour.bsky.social, Krikor Der-Hagopian, Mike Knights and Sanam Vakil for a virtual #IraqInitiative discussion.
Watch LIVE ⤵️
www.facebook.com/CHMENAProg/v...
The future of Iraq-US relations under Trump | A panel of experts examines the impact of the new US administration for bilateral ties and broader regional dynamics. | By Chatham House Middle East and N...
A panel of experts examines the impact of the new US administration for bilateral ties and broader regional dynamics.
www.facebook.com
March 18, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Webinar: The future of Iraq–US relations under Trump
Join @renadmansour.bsky.social, Krikor Der-Hagopian, Mike Knights and Sanam Vakil for a virtual #IraqInitiative discussion.
Watch LIVE ⤵️
www.facebook.com/CHMENAProg/v...
Join @renadmansour.bsky.social, Krikor Der-Hagopian, Mike Knights and Sanam Vakil for a virtual #IraqInitiative discussion.
Watch LIVE ⤵️
www.facebook.com/CHMENAProg/v...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
📢NEW PAPER by @chathamhouse.bsky.social XCEPT Research
'The shape-shifting ‘axis of resistance’: How Iran and its networks adapt to external pressures' by @renadmansour.bsky.social, @haydersh.bsky.social & @haidhaid22.bsky.social.🧵
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shap...
'The shape-shifting ‘axis of resistance’: How Iran and its networks adapt to external pressures' by @renadmansour.bsky.social, @haydersh.bsky.social & @haidhaid22.bsky.social.🧵
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shap...
The shape-shifting ‘axis of resistance’
How Iran and its networks adapt to external pressures
www.chathamhouse.org
March 7, 2025 at 12:50 PM
📢NEW PAPER by @chathamhouse.bsky.social XCEPT Research
'The shape-shifting ‘axis of resistance’: How Iran and its networks adapt to external pressures' by @renadmansour.bsky.social, @haydersh.bsky.social & @haidhaid22.bsky.social.🧵
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shap...
'The shape-shifting ‘axis of resistance’: How Iran and its networks adapt to external pressures' by @renadmansour.bsky.social, @haydersh.bsky.social & @haidhaid22.bsky.social.🧵
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shap...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Read the full research paper by @renadmansour.bsky.social, @haydersh.bsky.social and @haidhaid22.bsky.social for an in-depth examination of the axis of resistance resiliance and the policy approaches needed to counter it. 9/9
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shap...
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shap...
The shape-shifting ‘axis of resistance’
How Iran and its networks adapt to external pressures
www.chathamhouse.org
March 7, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Read the full research paper by @renadmansour.bsky.social, @haydersh.bsky.social and @haidhaid22.bsky.social for an in-depth examination of the axis of resistance resiliance and the policy approaches needed to counter it. 9/9
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shap...
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shap...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
A deeply divisive conflict between Iraq’s two foremost judicial figures has recently come to light, raising alarm that the country’s political stability may unravel, writes @sajadjiyad.bsky.social in a new #IraqInitiative article.
Read the analysis on Kalam ⤵️
kalam.chathamhouse.org/articles/the...
Read the analysis on Kalam ⤵️
kalam.chathamhouse.org/articles/the...
The fight for political supremacy in Iraq’s judiciary - Kalam
A deeply divisive conflict between Iraq’s two foremost judicial figures has recently come to light, raising alarm that the country’s political stability may
kalam.chathamhouse.org
February 17, 2025 at 11:52 AM
A deeply divisive conflict between Iraq’s two foremost judicial figures has recently come to light, raising alarm that the country’s political stability may unravel, writes @sajadjiyad.bsky.social in a new #IraqInitiative article.
Read the analysis on Kalam ⤵️
kalam.chathamhouse.org/articles/the...
Read the analysis on Kalam ⤵️
kalam.chathamhouse.org/articles/the...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Free to read Global Policy - @chathamhouse.bsky.social e-book 'Borders of Conflict: Navigating Policy in a Transnational Ecosystem', edited by @renadmansour.bsky.social
www.globalpolicyjournal.com/projects/gp-...
www.globalpolicyjournal.com/projects/gp-...
Borders of Conflict: Navigating Policy in a Transnational Ecosystem | Global Policy Journal
Armed conflicts are rarely confined within country borders. Flows of power, capital, services, and people connect conflicts to distant geographies. Even local or intra-state wars are symbiotically lin...
www.globalpolicyjournal.com
February 10, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Free to read Global Policy - @chathamhouse.bsky.social e-book 'Borders of Conflict: Navigating Policy in a Transnational Ecosystem', edited by @renadmansour.bsky.social
www.globalpolicyjournal.com/projects/gp-...
www.globalpolicyjournal.com/projects/gp-...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Podcast🎙️| What will be the flashpoints of 2025?
@gideonrachman.bsky.social, @renadmansour.bsky.social and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social join the podcast this week to discuss the crises and flashpoints facing the world this year.
@gideonrachman.bsky.social, @renadmansour.bsky.social and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social join the podcast this week to discuss the crises and flashpoints facing the world this year.
Independent Thinking: What will be the flashpoints of 2025?
Gideon Rachman, Leslie Vinjamuri and Renad Mansour join the podcast to look at the year ahead and discuss whether we are likely to face a more disordered world.
www.chathamhouse.org
January 10, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Podcast🎙️| What will be the flashpoints of 2025?
@gideonrachman.bsky.social, @renadmansour.bsky.social and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social join the podcast this week to discuss the crises and flashpoints facing the world this year.
@gideonrachman.bsky.social, @renadmansour.bsky.social and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social join the podcast this week to discuss the crises and flashpoints facing the world this year.
Reposted by Renad Mansour
'If the argument for removing the U.S. troops from Iraq was that the fight against ISIS was over and the region is stable, that calculation has changed following regime change in Syria,' says @renadmansour.bsky.social via ABC News.
abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory...
abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory...
Regime change in Syria has Iraqi factions backtracking on push for US withdrawal
The fall of Bashar Assad in Syria has led Iran-allied factions in neighboring Iraq to reconsider their push for U.S. forces to exit the country, multiple Iraqi and American officials told The Associat...
abcnews.go.com
February 6, 2025 at 5:54 PM
'If the argument for removing the U.S. troops from Iraq was that the fight against ISIS was over and the region is stable, that calculation has changed following regime change in Syria,' says @renadmansour.bsky.social via ABC News.
abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory...
abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Iraq has appeared relatively stable under PM Sudani and the ruling SCF in recent years.
But that stability remains precarious, making the coming year pivotal for the country, @renadmansour.bsky.social writes.
But that stability remains precarious, making the coming year pivotal for the country, @renadmansour.bsky.social writes.
Iraq’s Newfound Stability Is About to Be Tested
Iraq has appeared relatively stable under PM Sudani and the ruling SCF in recent years. But that stability remains precarious.
www.worldpoliticsreview.com
December 4, 2024 at 8:58 PM
Iraq has appeared relatively stable under PM Sudani and the ruling SCF in recent years.
But that stability remains precarious, making the coming year pivotal for the country, @renadmansour.bsky.social writes.
But that stability remains precarious, making the coming year pivotal for the country, @renadmansour.bsky.social writes.
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Should have tagged @renadmansour.bsky.social (didn't realise he was on here!)
🎙️ This morning Renad Mansour and I spoke to Emma Nelson on Monocle Radio about the alliance of convenience between #Russia and #Iran. The segment starts 2 minutes 15 seconds into the recording
monocle.com/radio/shows/...
monocle.com/radio/shows/...
Vladimir Putin’s Iran connection
As the international community raises the alarm over the warming relationship between Tehran and Moscow, we assess what this means for the frontline in Ukr…
monocle.com
November 28, 2024 at 9:42 AM
Should have tagged @renadmansour.bsky.social (didn't realise he was on here!)
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Fascinating, innovative mapping of the relationship between supply chains & conflict in the Levant by Hayder El-Shakeri and Renad Mansour:
www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/how-...
www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/how-...
How supply chains fuel transnational conflict in the Middle East
Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.
www.chathamhouse.org
November 27, 2024 at 8:58 AM
Fascinating, innovative mapping of the relationship between supply chains & conflict in the Levant by Hayder El-Shakeri and Renad Mansour:
www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/how-...
www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/how-...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.
How supply chains fuel transnational conflict in the Middle East
Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.
www.chathamhouse.org
November 22, 2024 at 9:00 AM
Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Renad Mansour: great insight on resilience of the Axis of Resistance www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/axis-...
The Axis of Resilience
Israel is underestimating Iran and its allies.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 15, 2024 at 5:54 AM
Renad Mansour: great insight on resilience of the Axis of Resistance www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/axis-...
Reposted by Renad Mansour
Highly recommend this by @renadmansour.bsky.social on how the Axis of Resistance has changed in recent years:
1. More horizontal & less top-down Iran-driven since Soleimani's assassination.
2. A shift in the balance of power to the Houthis & Kataib Hezbollah post-Oct. 7.
Very thought-provoking.
1. More horizontal & less top-down Iran-driven since Soleimani's assassination.
2. A shift in the balance of power to the Houthis & Kataib Hezbollah post-Oct. 7.
Very thought-provoking.
The Axis of Resilience
Israel is underestimating Iran and its allies.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 18, 2024 at 2:18 PM
Highly recommend this by @renadmansour.bsky.social on how the Axis of Resistance has changed in recent years:
1. More horizontal & less top-down Iran-driven since Soleimani's assassination.
2. A shift in the balance of power to the Houthis & Kataib Hezbollah post-Oct. 7.
Very thought-provoking.
1. More horizontal & less top-down Iran-driven since Soleimani's assassination.
2. A shift in the balance of power to the Houthis & Kataib Hezbollah post-Oct. 7.
Very thought-provoking.
Reposted by Renad Mansour
The Axis of Resilience
Israel is underestimating Iran and its allies.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 18, 2024 at 3:10 PM
In response to Hamas’s Oct 7 attack, Israel launched a regional war to reshape the Middle East. But the groups it now takes on, with their deep state connections and transnational ties, have shown previously that they can adapt to shocks. My piece on why that matters now.
Israel’s strategy of total war may yield short-term tactical victories, but it is unlikely to eradicate the so-called axis of resistance—a network of groups allied with Iran that includes Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, writes Renad Mansour.
The Axis of Resilience
Israel is underestimating Iran and its allies.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 18, 2024 at 9:35 AM
In response to Hamas’s Oct 7 attack, Israel launched a regional war to reshape the Middle East. But the groups it now takes on, with their deep state connections and transnational ties, have shown previously that they can adapt to shocks. My piece on why that matters now.