Phillies Forecaster
@phillsforecast.bsky.social
Forecasting Phillies Win Totals and Playoff Chances
Pinned
During the past few seasons, I built a model to project total Phillies wins and playoff chances.
I created this account to share my projections. I plan to publish updates periodically.
I plan to release my projections on March 23, 2025
I created this account to share my projections. I plan to publish updates periodically.
I plan to release my projections on March 23, 2025
Couple interesting tidbits from @mattgelb.bsky.social and @ken-rosenthal.bsky.social reporting:
- Strahm might be traded.
- Harrison Bader expecting a 3-yr deal.
- Schwarber hopes to have a deal in place within the next two weeks.
Not much movement otherwise.
- Strahm might be traded.
- Harrison Bader expecting a 3-yr deal.
- Schwarber hopes to have a deal in place within the next two weeks.
Not much movement otherwise.
December 8, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Couple interesting tidbits from @mattgelb.bsky.social and @ken-rosenthal.bsky.social reporting:
- Strahm might be traded.
- Harrison Bader expecting a 3-yr deal.
- Schwarber hopes to have a deal in place within the next two weeks.
Not much movement otherwise.
- Strahm might be traded.
- Harrison Bader expecting a 3-yr deal.
- Schwarber hopes to have a deal in place within the next two weeks.
Not much movement otherwise.
FanDuel 2026 World Series Championship implied odds (12/2 update):
Dodgers - 22.2%(-)
Yankees - 12.5%(-)
Phillies - 9.1%(-)
Mets - 8.3%(-)
Mariners - 7.7%(📈)
Astros - 6.7%(📉
Blue Jays - 5.9%(📈)
Dodgers - 22.2%(-)
Yankees - 12.5%(-)
Phillies - 9.1%(-)
Mets - 8.3%(-)
Mariners - 7.7%(📈)
Astros - 6.7%(📉
Blue Jays - 5.9%(📈)
December 3, 2025 at 2:23 AM
FanDuel 2026 World Series Championship implied odds (12/2 update):
Dodgers - 22.2%(-)
Yankees - 12.5%(-)
Phillies - 9.1%(-)
Mets - 8.3%(-)
Mariners - 7.7%(📈)
Astros - 6.7%(📉
Blue Jays - 5.9%(📈)
Dodgers - 22.2%(-)
Yankees - 12.5%(-)
Phillies - 9.1%(-)
Mets - 8.3%(-)
Mariners - 7.7%(📈)
Astros - 6.7%(📉
Blue Jays - 5.9%(📈)
Didn’t realize how great of a season Sanchez had until I read this post. Still amazed at how great he’s become.
Sanchez threw 14.1 more innings in the same number of starts, which had him .1 behind in fWAR, .3 ahead in bWAR, and 1.2 ahead by WARP. Sanchez also pitched in high leverage down the stretch. By advanced metrics, Sanchez was the deserving winner, but that wasn’t the narrative
November 13, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Didn’t realize how great of a season Sanchez had until I read this post. Still amazed at how great he’s become.
Bader coming back seems to be a real possibility and I’d say the most likely.
Dave Dombrowski on Harrison Bader: "They know we have interest. They know that we'd like to bring him back. They also had expressed that they want to see what's out there because this was the best year he's had, I think, in quite a while."
More on OF: www.nytimes.com/athletic/679...
More on OF: www.nytimes.com/athletic/679...
Phillies’ outfield revamp: Justin Crawford, no Nick Castellanos, and a lot of questions
The Phillies are actively shopping Nick Castellanos at this week's GM meetings, multiple major-league sources told The Athletic.
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 11:28 PM
Bader coming back seems to be a real possibility and I’d say the most likely.
Ranger’s story is a great one. Very happy to see this guy get paid.
With Ranger Suarez now a FA, the current longest tenured under contract player on the Phillies is either Aaron Nola (June 10, 2014) or Rafael Marchan (July 3, 2015) depending on how you want to handle Nola actually becoming a free agent. After those two it jumps all the way to Johan Rojas (1/18/18)
November 9, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Ranger’s story is a great one. Very happy to see this guy get paid.
FanDuel 2026 World Series Championship implied odds (11/7 update):
Dodgers - 22.2%
Yankees - 12.5%
Phillies - 9.1%
Mets - 8.3%
Astros - 7.1%
Mariners - 5.6%
Blue Jays - 5.3%
Dodgers - 22.2%
Yankees - 12.5%
Phillies - 9.1%
Mets - 8.3%
Astros - 7.1%
Mariners - 5.6%
Blue Jays - 5.3%
November 7, 2025 at 2:43 PM
FanDuel 2026 World Series Championship implied odds (11/7 update):
Dodgers - 22.2%
Yankees - 12.5%
Phillies - 9.1%
Mets - 8.3%
Astros - 7.1%
Mariners - 5.6%
Blue Jays - 5.3%
Dodgers - 22.2%
Yankees - 12.5%
Phillies - 9.1%
Mets - 8.3%
Astros - 7.1%
Mariners - 5.6%
Blue Jays - 5.3%
Listened to and read some of the offseason previews for the Phillies. It seems that this is the base case for the offseason:
November 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Listened to and read some of the offseason previews for the Phillies. It seems that this is the base case for the offseason:
Listened to Dombrowski’s presser. Overall, agree with what he said and the direction they appear to be going.
A couple of things go the other way in the NLDS and they win the series.
As a fan, the chase continues and I’m excited for what’s to come.
A couple of things go the other way in the NLDS and they win the series.
As a fan, the chase continues and I’m excited for what’s to come.
October 17, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Listened to Dombrowski’s presser. Overall, agree with what he said and the direction they appear to be going.
A couple of things go the other way in the NLDS and they win the series.
As a fan, the chase continues and I’m excited for what’s to come.
A couple of things go the other way in the NLDS and they win the series.
As a fan, the chase continues and I’m excited for what’s to come.
Well, here we are at game 162. The Phillies have exceeded the model’s expectations by many games. It projected about ~86 at the start the season.
They’ve had a successful regular season and have won the Division and achieved a 1st round bye.
Now, they have a legit shot at winning a title.
They’ve had a successful regular season and have won the Division and achieved a 1st round bye.
Now, they have a legit shot at winning a title.
September 28, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Well, here we are at game 162. The Phillies have exceeded the model’s expectations by many games. It projected about ~86 at the start the season.
They’ve had a successful regular season and have won the Division and achieved a 1st round bye.
Now, they have a legit shot at winning a title.
They’ve had a successful regular season and have won the Division and achieved a 1st round bye.
Now, they have a legit shot at winning a title.
Clinch Bye % per Fangraphs (9/15 update):
Phillies - 89.2%
Dodgers - 10.2%
Phillies - 89.2%
Dodgers - 10.2%
September 15, 2025 at 12:59 AM
Clinch Bye % per Fangraphs (9/15 update):
Phillies - 89.2%
Dodgers - 10.2%
Phillies - 89.2%
Dodgers - 10.2%
September 15, 2025 update (post Mets/Brewers series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 94 wins (+3)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 94 wins (+3)📈
September 15, 2025 at 12:54 AM
September 15, 2025 update (post Mets/Brewers series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 94 wins (+3)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 94 wins (+3)📈
Pretty remarkable the Phillies can clinch the NL East today.
September 14, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Pretty remarkable the Phillies can clinch the NL East today.
September 10, 2025 update (post Brewers/Marlins series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 91 wins (+1)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 91 wins (+1)📈
September 10, 2025 at 12:56 PM
September 10, 2025 update (post Brewers/Marlins series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 91 wins (+1)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 91 wins (+1)📈
At this rate, Nola doesn’t make the playoffs roster.
September 3, 2025 at 11:58 PM
At this rate, Nola doesn’t make the playoffs roster.
September 1, 2025 update (post Mets/Braves series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (-)
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (-)
September 2, 2025 at 1:14 AM
September 1, 2025 update (post Mets/Braves series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (-)
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (-)
From a fan perspective, the Phillies being swept by the Mets was a gut punch.
I hope a four game lead is enough.
I hope a four game lead is enough.
August 28, 2025 at 12:49 PM
From a fan perspective, the Phillies being swept by the Mets was a gut punch.
I hope a four game lead is enough.
I hope a four game lead is enough.
August 25, 2025 update (post Mariners/Nats series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
August 25, 2025 at 5:31 PM
August 25, 2025 update (post Mariners/Nats series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
Reposted by Phillies Forecaster
Everyone has said what they need to say about Aaron Nola, a man who has spent 11 years under the watchful scrutiny of this city. It can be paralyzing.
It’d be a hell of a story if he rose to the moment when the Phillies need him most: www.nytimes.com/athletic/657...
It’d be a hell of a story if he rose to the moment when the Phillies need him most: www.nytimes.com/athletic/657...
Phillies need more of vintage Aaron Nola: ‘I just need to step up’
Philadelphia needs a righty for its hypothetical postseason rotation, which as of now would feature three lefties.
www.nytimes.com
August 24, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Everyone has said what they need to say about Aaron Nola, a man who has spent 11 years under the watchful scrutiny of this city. It can be paralyzing.
It’d be a hell of a story if he rose to the moment when the Phillies need him most: www.nytimes.com/athletic/657...
It’d be a hell of a story if he rose to the moment when the Phillies need him most: www.nytimes.com/athletic/657...
August 18, 2025 update (post Reds/Nats series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 88 wins (-2)📉
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 88 wins (-2)📉
August 19, 2025 at 2:15 AM
August 18, 2025 update (post Reds/Nats series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 88 wins (-2)📉
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 88 wins (-2)📉
After reaching the high point of the season, the Phillies are in the midst of a rough week and on the verge of potentially being -3 wins in the model.
The biggest blow however is losing Wheeler, likely for the season. A huge blow to their championship aspirations.
The biggest blow however is losing Wheeler, likely for the season. A huge blow to their championship aspirations.
August 17, 2025 at 2:42 PM
After reaching the high point of the season, the Phillies are in the midst of a rough week and on the verge of potentially being -3 wins in the model.
The biggest blow however is losing Wheeler, likely for the season. A huge blow to their championship aspirations.
The biggest blow however is losing Wheeler, likely for the season. A huge blow to their championship aspirations.
To call Wheelers situation devastating would be an understatement.
August 17, 2025 at 12:17 PM
To call Wheelers situation devastating would be an understatement.
August 11, 2025 update (post Orioles/Rangers series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
August 12, 2025 at 12:20 AM
August 11, 2025 update (post Orioles/Rangers series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 90 wins (+2)📈
Reposted by Phillies Forecaster
Phillies are 2 1/2 games up on Mets. It’s the most separation between the two teams in either direction since June 15.
August 6, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Phillies are 2 1/2 games up on Mets. It’s the most separation between the two teams in either direction since June 15.
August 4, 2025 update (post WhiteSox/Tigers series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 88 wins (-)
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 88 wins (-)
August 5, 2025 at 1:29 AM
August 4, 2025 update (post WhiteSox/Tigers series):
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 88 wins (-)
Phillies Forecaster Projection -> 88 wins (-)
Reposted by Phillies Forecaster
I am scared of paying a premium for team control on relievers. Jhoan Duran is one of the best relievers in baseball and has two more years of control. He has done it his whole career, he throws hard, misses bats, and largely keeps the ball in the yard.
July 30, 2025 at 10:49 PM
I am scared of paying a premium for team control on relievers. Jhoan Duran is one of the best relievers in baseball and has two more years of control. He has done it his whole career, he throws hard, misses bats, and largely keeps the ball in the yard.