Mike Smitka
mikesmitka.bsky.social
Mike Smitka
@mikesmitka.bsky.social
I'm a mostly retired economist with background in Japan, China and the global auto industry. I have a substack at smitka.substack.com and post occasional articles at SeekingAlpha. I've spent 8 years in Asia, and read Japanese and Chinese.
Here's a new substack article, extending an interview I did last week for NBC in Hong Kong on potential Ford F-150 sales to Japan. smitka.substack.com/p/pickups-fo...
Pickups for Japan? No!
Japan already has small pickups that match market needs
smitka.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Check out my new substack article! I don’t know whether the subtitle is visible, but the content is about agrarian reform in China, it's not an abstract discussion of the philosophy of science.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
Ideology and Economic Analysis
How our markets-first ideology leads economists to misread the impact of China's Household Responsibility System
open.substack.com
October 10, 2025 at 4:11 AM
Software Defined Vehicles: Damned if you Don't, but Damned if you do
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
Software Defined Vehicles: Damned if you Don't, but Damned if you do
Industry-wide innovation is inevitable, unprofitable, and a mixed blessing for consumers
open.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 4:52 PM
I've posted a bunch of graphs on substack, updating ones I set up in my teaching days with data through August 2025. Then back to work on a substack article on the sources of Chinese economic growth, which is not the naive "markets" story most economists tell. open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
Quick Update: Jobs Report for August 2025
...a bunch of graphs
open.substack.com
September 5, 2025 at 5:17 PM
I just published a new substack, as an analytic exercise prior to analyzing BYD for a new SeekingAlpha article. More once that's up.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
The Full Model Lineup Dilemma
...thinking about the maturing Chinese car market, particularly BYD
open.substack.com
August 22, 2025 at 5:38 PM
As per the title of my latest substack article, the decline of the US industry continues. I'm en route back from a month in Asia, and will post on the Chinese and Japanese auto industries in the coming weeks.
smitka.substack.com/p/three-stri...
Three Strikes and You're Out: Strategic Challenges of the US Auto Industry
...are they (GM, Ford, Stellantis Chrysler) out?
smitka.substack.com
July 19, 2025 at 11:45 PM
SeekingAlpha just published my latest article, I present lots of data. The title says it all, I don't look at the US but I do provide Europe data through 2025Q1.

seekingalpha.com/article/4787...
China Autos Q1/April Update: Tesla Stalls (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Tesla faces falling global demand, rising competition, and margin pressure, undermining its long-term outlook/valuation. Learn why TSLA stock is a strong sell.
seekingalpha.com
May 16, 2025 at 2:37 PM
A dramatic ascent by new players – in Jan '20 BYD was nothing, now it's THE player. Through joint ventures, policy supported firms owned by central (FAW, Dongfeng) and municipal govts (BAIC, SAIC, GAW, Changan). Failures!

The Ascent of China's Private Car Firms open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
The Ascent of China's Private Car Firms
...and the collapse of its national champion State Owned Enterprises
open.substack.com
May 14, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Just a head's up that I have a short substack post following up on my article on how tariffs will affect used car prices. That in fact is already happening, referencing a New York Times story.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
Buy Here Pay Here: Paying Cash for Clunkers
With A Nod to the New York Times
open.substack.com
May 7, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Opening a new plant is challenging at the best of times, you have to line up a lot of ducks, and they all have to fall in the right sequence. This isn't the best of times. For more on how tough it is, see my latest substack.
smitka.substack.com/p/reshoring-...
Reshoring: What it Takes to Build a New Factory
Or why we won't see a rush of manufacturing returning to US shores
smitka.substack.com
April 17, 2025 at 5:07 PM
See my new substack on the impact of tariffs on used car prices. In 2009 we had a "cash for clunkers" program. Now we have a de facto Clunkers for Cash program, as consumers burn through cash to keep aging cars on the road.

smitka.substack.com/p/clunkers-f...
Clunkers for Cash
The impact of tariffs on used car owners
smitka.substack.com
April 7, 2025 at 1:10 AM
I've forgotten about posting to Blue Sky.
In any case, I just published a new substack article on the auto market in China. (I also have a recent article on Tesla in China at SeekingAlpha, behind a paywall.) I hope you find it informative! open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...
China: A Price War? – maybe not!
Discounting is rampant, but in line with changes in supply and demand
open.substack.com
March 21, 2025 at 6:51 AM
Need to get my son to join, maybe Bluesky will help him publicize regional kendo, iaido and jodo activities. He's off today to sell 2 of his extra swords...
December 28, 2024 at 10:51 PM
My latest substack is on Chinese industrial policy for the auto industry. China's EVs lead, and large cash subsidies were crucial. But the wrong firms are winning: the big state-owned automotive enterprises aren't doing well, instead private firms are the winners. See smitka.substack.com
Mike Smitka on the Auto Industry, Japan, and China | Substack
I write about the global auto industry, with occasional posts on the economies of China and Japan, and on economics as a science. Click to read Mike Smitka on the Auto Industry, Japan, and China, a Su...
smitka.substack.com
December 28, 2024 at 10:32 PM