Mike Gibilisco
@mgibilisco.bsky.social
Professor and political scientist at Caltech researching and teaching about conflict, political institutions, and connections between models and data.
michaelgibilisco.com
michaelgibilisco.com
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Mike Gibilisco
@mgibilisco.bsky.social
· Mar 14
Tug of War: The Heterogeneous Effects of Outbidding Between Terrorist Groups | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Tug of War: The Heterogeneous Effects of Outbidding Between Terrorist Groups - Volume 79 Issue 1
www.cambridge.org
Incredibly excited to see this paper with @ccrismancox.bsky.social at @iojournal.bsky.social.
We study outbidding using new models, methods, and data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. #polisky
We study outbidding using new models, methods, and data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. #polisky
After working through second and third derivatives, I am ready to abandon Bayes learning for something with an easier functional form.
November 11, 2025 at 10:57 PM
After working through second and third derivatives, I am ready to abandon Bayes learning for something with an easier functional form.
Cue the john williams's jurassic park theme song
Caltech researchers have now developed technology to freeze and preserve stem cells from birds that can then be reconstituted to help propagate populations.
www.caltech.edu/about/news/s...
www.caltech.edu/about/news/s...
Stem Cell Technique Could Preserve Endangered Bird Species
A new technique enables stem cells from bird species to be frozen and revived
www.caltech.edu
October 15, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Cue the john williams's jurassic park theme song
Reposted by Mike Gibilisco
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring the Quality of Answers in Political Q&As with Large Language Models,” @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social and Jacob Morrier develop an approach for measuring the quality of answers in Q&A sessions using data from the Question Period in the Canadian House of Commons.
October 7, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring the Quality of Answers in Political Q&As with Large Language Models,” @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social and Jacob Morrier develop an approach for measuring the quality of answers in Q&A sessions using data from the Question Period in the Canadian House of Commons.
These always strike me as strong associations and I’ve always wondered how these observed rates vary by field. Eg: effect of family background of becoming an MD/physician or JD/lawyer?
🚨 New paper: Who climbs the Ivory Tower? 🏛️ Together with Nicolai Borgen and Astrid Sandsør (@astridsandsor.bsky.social), we find that the chances of becoming a professor differ enormously by family background. Here’s what we find 👇
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
October 3, 2025 at 1:39 AM
These always strike me as strong associations and I’ve always wondered how these observed rates vary by field. Eg: effect of family background of becoming an MD/physician or JD/lawyer?
If we write papers using LLM generated data, and those papers are then used to create another version of LLMs and then new datasets for new papers, will the process converge? If not, will it be stationary?
One of the loudest bells tolling for social science right now is that the decade of abundant data on humans is coming to a close. Whether you work on digital trace or surveys, LLM pollution is a serious problem, even while the wide roll out of LLMs creates an urgent need for social science.
A lot of psych is already conducted with online convenience samples & ppl are probably excited about silicon samples bc it would allow them to crank out more studies for even less 💸
How about we reconsider the idea that sciencey science involves collecting own data.
www.science.org/content/arti...
How about we reconsider the idea that sciencey science involves collecting own data.
www.science.org/content/arti...
October 1, 2025 at 4:58 PM
If we write papers using LLM generated data, and those papers are then used to create another version of LLMs and then new datasets for new papers, will the process converge? If not, will it be stationary?
There are social scientists at #Caltech, @caltech.edu! I think they do pretty good research...at least some of the time.
www.caltech.edu/about/news/m...
www.caltech.edu/about/news/m...
Modeling Violent Terrorism as a Tug of War Between Competing Groups
Mike Gibilisco, professor of political science, and his co-author seek an understanding of how competing terrorist groups react to one another's violent attacks.
www.caltech.edu
September 29, 2025 at 9:25 PM
There are social scientists at #Caltech, @caltech.edu! I think they do pretty good research...at least some of the time.
www.caltech.edu/about/news/m...
www.caltech.edu/about/news/m...
Reposted by Mike Gibilisco
This is close to stenography:
“An unnamed source told me all these things [many clearly false] so am repeating them to you”
How is this different than publishing a press release?
“An unnamed source told me all these things [many clearly false] so am repeating them to you”
How is this different than publishing a press release?
Just spoke with an administration official about the President’s decision to fire the BLS commissioner. Some takeaways:
1. The firing was due to what the White House sees as a “pattern of incompetence.” The possibility of firing her had been on the President’s radar for months.
1. The firing was due to what the White House sees as a “pattern of incompetence.” The possibility of firing her had been on the President’s radar for months.
August 8, 2025 at 3:21 PM
This is close to stenography:
“An unnamed source told me all these things [many clearly false] so am repeating them to you”
How is this different than publishing a press release?
“An unnamed source told me all these things [many clearly false] so am repeating them to you”
How is this different than publishing a press release?
Next question: does monterey pdf word count pick this up? I dont know if I can sacrifice 1 of my 5 implications for this.
Researchers have been sneaking secret messages into their papers in an effort to trick AI tools into giving them a positive peer-review report
Read the full story: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Read the full story: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
July 15, 2025 at 11:08 PM
Next question: does monterey pdf word count pick this up? I dont know if I can sacrifice 1 of my 5 implications for this.
Reposted by Mike Gibilisco
What remains of USAID? Practically nothing ("a shell") and millions will die because of Trump and Musk
What Remains of U.S.A.I.D. After DOGE’s Budget Cuts? (Gift Article)
The few hundred programs that survived DOGE’s purge reveal the future of foreign aid.
www.nytimes.com
June 22, 2025 at 6:10 PM
What remains of USAID? Practically nothing ("a shell") and millions will die because of Trump and Musk
Stand aside \bot here comes \swordcontradict
June 9, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Stand aside \bot here comes \swordcontradict
Reposted by Mike Gibilisco
Social, Behavioral, & Economic Sciences is getting hit with a 67.6% cut, worse than other programs within NSF. Funding for archaeologists comes from the division for Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences, which is facing a 77.3% cut.
It appears every post doc program has been 100% cut.
It appears every post doc program has been 100% cut.
May 30, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Social, Behavioral, & Economic Sciences is getting hit with a 67.6% cut, worse than other programs within NSF. Funding for archaeologists comes from the division for Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences, which is facing a 77.3% cut.
It appears every post doc program has been 100% cut.
It appears every post doc program has been 100% cut.
Reposted by Mike Gibilisco
I am looking at NSF's budget request, in awe at the disinvestment in learning anything. nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/files/00-NSF...
nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov
May 30, 2025 at 10:05 PM
I am looking at NSF's budget request, in awe at the disinvestment in learning anything. nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/files/00-NSF...
Reposted by Mike Gibilisco
TO BE PERFECTLY CLEAR, THE PROPOSED NSF BUDGET CUTS NEARLY A QUARTER OF A MILLION PEOPLE FROM NSF ACTIVITIES. FOR INSTANCE, JOBS.
May 30, 2025 at 11:37 PM
TO BE PERFECTLY CLEAR, THE PROPOSED NSF BUDGET CUTS NEARLY A QUARTER OF A MILLION PEOPLE FROM NSF ACTIVITIES. FOR INSTANCE, JOBS.
@caltech.edu and I both agree that international relations needs more theoretical models and fitting those models to data.
I like it when people put disclaimers in their bios that their posts don't represent their employer. I want everyone to think that UC Riverside agrees with everything I say online. Did the refs screw the Nuggets against OKC? Me and UCR think so.
May 25, 2025 at 11:19 PM
@caltech.edu and I both agree that international relations needs more theoretical models and fitting those models to data.
Even after 8 years, I don’t fully understand caltech’s skip day, but this is the first year with an inflatable dragon outside my office.
May 23, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Even after 8 years, I don’t fully understand caltech’s skip day, but this is the first year with an inflatable dragon outside my office.
Reposted by Mike Gibilisco
Happy to see that this is now out. The R package associated with the project, IRTM, can now be found on CRAN. Or can you still download it from my github. We'll continue to update it over time. This is a brief thread about what IRTM can do. 🧵 (1/7)
From our new issue: "Measurement That Matches Theory: Theory-Driven Identification in Item Response Theory Models" by Marco Morucci, Margaret Foster, Kaitlyn Webster, So Jin Lee, and David Siegel. #APSRNewIssue www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
May 22, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Happy to see that this is now out. The R package associated with the project, IRTM, can now be found on CRAN. Or can you still download it from my github. We'll continue to update it over time. This is a brief thread about what IRTM can do. 🧵 (1/7)
This is a neat paper that illustrates the benefits of combining theory with new data. You will find this interesting!
Very excited to share a new project I've been working on.
MCs have a statistically detectable preference for enforcing the separation of powers, but it is rarely big enough to dominate their policy preferences and affect their roll call vote choices.
Very early project - open to all feedback!
MCs have a statistically detectable preference for enforcing the separation of powers, but it is rarely big enough to dominate their policy preferences and affect their roll call vote choices.
Very early project - open to all feedback!
May 17, 2025 at 6:02 PM
This is a neat paper that illustrates the benefits of combining theory with new data. You will find this interesting!
I am never excited for 9am meeting, but today is dissertation defense day!
May 9, 2025 at 3:56 PM
I am never excited for 9am meeting, but today is dissertation defense day!
The coconut milk is bad!
April 11, 2025 at 2:02 AM
The coconut milk is bad!
First day of class for the spring quarter
April 1, 2025 at 4:37 PM
First day of class for the spring quarter
Reposted by Mike Gibilisco
This is just to say
I have texted
the war plans
that were in
the Defense Department
and which
you were probably
saving
for people with a security clearance
Forgive me
they were delicious
so sweet
and so cold
I have texted
the war plans
that were in
the Defense Department
and which
you were probably
saving
for people with a security clearance
Forgive me
they were delicious
so sweet
and so cold
March 24, 2025 at 6:00 PM
This is just to say
I have texted
the war plans
that were in
the Defense Department
and which
you were probably
saving
for people with a security clearance
Forgive me
they were delicious
so sweet
and so cold
I have texted
the war plans
that were in
the Defense Department
and which
you were probably
saving
for people with a security clearance
Forgive me
they were delicious
so sweet
and so cold
Reposted by Mike Gibilisco
This is a fantastic paper.
If you ever wondered “why would I want to use a structural approach?” this paper is a shining example.
If you ever wondered “why would I want to use a structural approach?” this paper is a shining example.
Incredibly excited to see this paper with @ccrismancox.bsky.social at @iojournal.bsky.social.
We study outbidding using new models, methods, and data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. #polisky
We study outbidding using new models, methods, and data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. #polisky
Tug of War: The Heterogeneous Effects of Outbidding Between Terrorist Groups | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Tug of War: The Heterogeneous Effects of Outbidding Between Terrorist Groups - Volume 79 Issue 1
www.cambridge.org
March 14, 2025 at 5:50 PM
This is a fantastic paper.
If you ever wondered “why would I want to use a structural approach?” this paper is a shining example.
If you ever wondered “why would I want to use a structural approach?” this paper is a shining example.
Incredibly excited to see this paper with @ccrismancox.bsky.social at @iojournal.bsky.social.
We study outbidding using new models, methods, and data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. #polisky
We study outbidding using new models, methods, and data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. #polisky
Tug of War: The Heterogeneous Effects of Outbidding Between Terrorist Groups | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Tug of War: The Heterogeneous Effects of Outbidding Between Terrorist Groups - Volume 79 Issue 1
www.cambridge.org
March 14, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Incredibly excited to see this paper with @ccrismancox.bsky.social at @iojournal.bsky.social.
We study outbidding using new models, methods, and data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. #polisky
We study outbidding using new models, methods, and data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. #polisky
Rediscovering my love of integration by parts.
February 20, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Rediscovering my love of integration by parts.