Lorenzo Lolli
@lorenzololli.bsky.social
Lead Researcher at Aspire Academy | Research Fellow at Manchester Metropolitan University | Views are my own
“For continuous outcome variables Y where the variance of measurements can be disconnected from the mean, 𝒐𝒏𝒆 𝒘𝒂𝒚 𝒕𝒐 𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒈𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒖𝒅𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝑯𝑻𝑬 𝒊𝒔 𝒕𝒐 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒀 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒈𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒑 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒐𝒍 𝒈𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒑….
Viewpoints on Heterogeneity of Treatment Effect and Precision Medicine – Statistical Thinking
This article provides my reflections after the PCORI/PACE Evidence and the Individual Patient meeting on 2018-05-31. The discussion includes a high-level view of heterogeneity of treatment effect in o...
www.fharrell.com
November 12, 2025 at 7:21 AM
“For continuous outcome variables Y where the variance of measurements can be disconnected from the mean, 𝒐𝒏𝒆 𝒘𝒂𝒚 𝒕𝒐 𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒈𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒖𝒅𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝑯𝑻𝑬 𝒊𝒔 𝒕𝒐 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒀 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒈𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒑 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒐𝒍 𝒈𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒑….
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
You categorised patients as responders or non responders by dichotomising a change from baseline?
You triple criminal!
You triple criminal!
November 8, 2025 at 7:33 PM
You categorised patients as responders or non responders by dichotomising a change from baseline?
You triple criminal!
You triple criminal!
“𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒑𝒍𝒂𝒄𝒆𝒃𝒐 𝒈𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒑𝒔 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗥 (𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁).”
Bell, K.J., Irwig, L., Craig, J.C., & Macaskill, P. (𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟴). British Medical Journal, 336(7640), 361–365.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18276713/
Bell, K.J., Irwig, L., Craig, J.C., & Macaskill, P. (𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟴). British Medical Journal, 336(7640), 361–365.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18276713/
Use of randomised trials to decide when to monitor response to new treatment - PubMed
Is monitoring initial response to treatment always helpful in clinical management of patients? <b>Bell and colleagues</b> have developed a framework for deciding whether surrogate outcomes should be used to monitor initial response to treatment in chronic disease.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
November 9, 2025 at 9:00 AM
“𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒑𝒍𝒂𝒄𝒆𝒃𝒐 𝒈𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒑𝒔 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗥 (𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁).”
Bell, K.J., Irwig, L., Craig, J.C., & Macaskill, P. (𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟴). British Medical Journal, 336(7640), 361–365.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18276713/
Bell, K.J., Irwig, L., Craig, J.C., & Macaskill, P. (𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟴). British Medical Journal, 336(7640), 361–365.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18276713/
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
A network of peer reviewers in Italy is targeting medical journals, threatening “both the scientific record and patient safety,” a team of researchers including @deevybee.bsky.social report.
Review mill in Italy targeting ob-gyn journals, researchers allege
Examples of “boilerplate” text used in the suspect reviews.M.A. Oviedo-Garcia et al/medRxiv 2025 A network of peer reviewers in Italy is targeting medical journals, threatening “both the scientific…
retractionwatch.com
November 4, 2025 at 8:54 PM
A network of peer reviewers in Italy is targeting medical journals, threatening “both the scientific record and patient safety,” a team of researchers including @deevybee.bsky.social report.
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
This is an excellent point that generalizes.
Researchers often defend suboptimal practices by referring to future studies with better designs.
But: Why would anybody run those studies when you can just throw a bunch of variables into a regression and make sweeping "preliminary" claims?
Researchers often defend suboptimal practices by referring to future studies with better designs.
But: Why would anybody run those studies when you can just throw a bunch of variables into a regression and make sweeping "preliminary" claims?
October 28, 2025 at 11:22 AM
This is an excellent point that generalizes.
Researchers often defend suboptimal practices by referring to future studies with better designs.
But: Why would anybody run those studies when you can just throw a bunch of variables into a regression and make sweeping "preliminary" claims?
Researchers often defend suboptimal practices by referring to future studies with better designs.
But: Why would anybody run those studies when you can just throw a bunch of variables into a regression and make sweeping "preliminary" claims?
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
🚨LEAD FEATURE ARTICLE🚨 November 2025✨
We are very excited to announce our lead feature article for the November 2025 by Lolli et al titled ‘Understanding Treatment Response Heterogeneity Using Crossover Randomized Controlled Trials: A Primer for Exercise and Nutrition Scientists’.
We are very excited to announce our lead feature article for the November 2025 by Lolli et al titled ‘Understanding Treatment Response Heterogeneity Using Crossover Randomized Controlled Trials: A Primer for Exercise and Nutrition Scientists’.
September 23, 2025 at 7:11 AM
🚨LEAD FEATURE ARTICLE🚨 November 2025✨
We are very excited to announce our lead feature article for the November 2025 by Lolli et al titled ‘Understanding Treatment Response Heterogeneity Using Crossover Randomized Controlled Trials: A Primer for Exercise and Nutrition Scientists’.
We are very excited to announce our lead feature article for the November 2025 by Lolli et al titled ‘Understanding Treatment Response Heterogeneity Using Crossover Randomized Controlled Trials: A Primer for Exercise and Nutrition Scientists’.
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
This is big! Worked with great statisticians on guidelines for meta-analysis & systematic review. We discuss rationales for systematic review, evaluation & interpretation of heterogeneity, & common errors in network meta-analysis, funnel plots etc. www.europeanurology.com/article/S030...
Guidelines for Meta-analyses and Systematic Reviews in Urology
Our guideline comprises points addressing the conduct and interpretation of systematic
reviews and meta-analyses in urology. Application of the guideline would lead to a
more considered interpretation...
www.europeanurology.com
September 5, 2025 at 2:30 PM
This is big! Worked with great statisticians on guidelines for meta-analysis & systematic review. We discuss rationales for systematic review, evaluation & interpretation of heterogeneity, & common errors in network meta-analysis, funnel plots etc. www.europeanurology.com/article/S030...
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
✨ NOVEMBER 2025 ISSUE LINE-UP✨
How are we already on the last issue of 2025?! This year has flown by but lucky for you, the IJSNEM content keeps on delivering. Stay tuned for papers to feature 🔔
How are we already on the last issue of 2025?! This year has flown by but lucky for you, the IJSNEM content keeps on delivering. Stay tuned for papers to feature 🔔
September 6, 2025 at 12:16 PM
✨ NOVEMBER 2025 ISSUE LINE-UP✨
How are we already on the last issue of 2025?! This year has flown by but lucky for you, the IJSNEM content keeps on delivering. Stay tuned for papers to feature 🔔
How are we already on the last issue of 2025?! This year has flown by but lucky for you, the IJSNEM content keeps on delivering. Stay tuned for papers to feature 🔔
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
Reviewing trial applications and so many are proposing to use mixed effects models with random effects for sites due to "clustering" despite 1) being individually-randomized, and 2) only having a small handful of sites. What is going on!?
September 3, 2025 at 5:43 AM
Reviewing trial applications and so many are proposing to use mixed effects models with random effects for sites due to "clustering" despite 1) being individually-randomized, and 2) only having a small handful of sites. What is going on!?
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
“When faced with claims of innovation, some in their caution make nuanced assessments, whereas others in their enthusiasm make newanced endorsements.”Saying of Confuseus
September 1, 2025 at 9:08 AM
“When faced with claims of innovation, some in their caution make nuanced assessments, whereas others in their enthusiasm make newanced endorsements.”Saying of Confuseus
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
We didn't randomize, and there was no allocation concealment or blinding, and we can't really be sure what intervention they got or how the outcomes were measured, but we emulated a trial by drawing a DAG.
August 31, 2025 at 3:21 PM
We didn't randomize, and there was no allocation concealment or blinding, and we can't really be sure what intervention they got or how the outcomes were measured, but we emulated a trial by drawing a DAG.
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
They who are tempted by large language muddles should consider using nopilot.” Sayings of Confuseus
August 30, 2025 at 6:35 AM
They who are tempted by large language muddles should consider using nopilot.” Sayings of Confuseus
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
It was a rewarding labour of love to work on this paper with a fantastic team of authors, “Understanding Treatment Response Heterogeneity Using Crossover Randomized Controlled Trials: A Primer for Exercise and Nutrition Scientists”. @hk-ijsnem.bsky.social journals.humankinetics.com/view/journal...
journals.humankinetics.com
August 28, 2025 at 5:50 PM
It was a rewarding labour of love to work on this paper with a fantastic team of authors, “Understanding Treatment Response Heterogeneity Using Crossover Randomized Controlled Trials: A Primer for Exercise and Nutrition Scientists”. @hk-ijsnem.bsky.social journals.humankinetics.com/view/journal...
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
I decided to make the introductory part in three segments: (1) logic (just the basics obviously) (2) epistemology (Vienna circle, K-Pop, Kuhn, Lakatos) and (3) what actually happens in practice (the “recipes for science” angle).>
Okay everyone, things are getting serious. I’m going to teach research methods again, 1st year psychology undergraduates. What would you cover with respects to philosophy of science, the research process etc.? I’m not very happy with the textbook stuff so I’m open to all ideas!
August 26, 2025 at 8:05 AM
I decided to make the introductory part in three segments: (1) logic (just the basics obviously) (2) epistemology (Vienna circle, K-Pop, Kuhn, Lakatos) and (3) what actually happens in practice (the “recipes for science” angle).>
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
Good discussion here about what’s wrong with computing change from baseline in a parallel group randomized clinical trial. We need to abandon this practice. stats.stackexchange.com/questions/57... #Statistics #StatsSky
On the defense of "change from baseline" even in randomized trials - can anyone question points in this article?
Many times I read a strong criticism on the change-from-baseline (adjusted for baseline or not) both in randomized and non-randomized. Several people advised "don't even think of reporting the
stats.stackexchange.com
August 24, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Good discussion here about what’s wrong with computing change from baseline in a parallel group randomized clinical trial. We need to abandon this practice. stats.stackexchange.com/questions/57... #Statistics #StatsSky
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
1/6. At present, I am thinking a lot about additive vs multiplicative treatment/intervention effects on tests of athletic performance, or athletic performance itself. I favour exploration rather than blanket assumptions.......
August 22, 2025 at 9:48 AM
1/6. At present, I am thinking a lot about additive vs multiplicative treatment/intervention effects on tests of athletic performance, or athletic performance itself. I favour exploration rather than blanket assumptions.......
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
New paper:
Tackling paper mills requires us to prevent future contamination and clean up the past – the case of the journal Bioengineered
With @deadneanderthals.bsky.social, @smutclyde.bsky.social, @mortenoxe.bsky.social, @thatsregrettab1.bsky.social, and me
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Tackling paper mills requires us to prevent future contamination and clean up the past – the case of the journal Bioengineered
With @deadneanderthals.bsky.social, @smutclyde.bsky.social, @mortenoxe.bsky.social, @thatsregrettab1.bsky.social, and me
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Tackling paper mills requires us to prevent future contamination and clean up the past – the case of the journal Bioengineered
Taylor & Francis journal Bioengineered has been targeted by paper mills. Our goal is to identify problematic articles published in Bioengineered during the period 2010 to 2024. Dimensions was used ...
www.tandfonline.com
August 22, 2025 at 4:15 AM
New paper:
Tackling paper mills requires us to prevent future contamination and clean up the past – the case of the journal Bioengineered
With @deadneanderthals.bsky.social, @smutclyde.bsky.social, @mortenoxe.bsky.social, @thatsregrettab1.bsky.social, and me
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Tackling paper mills requires us to prevent future contamination and clean up the past – the case of the journal Bioengineered
With @deadneanderthals.bsky.social, @smutclyde.bsky.social, @mortenoxe.bsky.social, @thatsregrettab1.bsky.social, and me
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
The paper @elisabethbik.bsky.social, @mortenoxe.bsky.social @thatsregrettab1.bsky.social, @smutclyde.bsky.social, and I wrote together on the troubles over at Bioengineered has now officially been published by... Bioengineered!
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Tackling paper mills requires us to prevent future contamination and clean up the past – the case of the journal Bioengineered
Taylor & Francis journal Bioengineered has been targeted by paper mills. Our goal is to identify problematic articles published in Bioengineered during the period 2010 to 2024. Dimensions was used ...
www.tandfonline.com
August 21, 2025 at 12:59 PM
The paper @elisabethbik.bsky.social, @mortenoxe.bsky.social @thatsregrettab1.bsky.social, @smutclyde.bsky.social, and I wrote together on the troubles over at Bioengineered has now officially been published by... Bioengineered!
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
“…it is 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒈𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒆 to determine the summary measure solely by examining either 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙪𝙖𝙡 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙛𝙞𝙡𝙚 𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙫𝙚𝙨 or mean curves 𝙥𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙥. Instead, it is best to study an 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽𝘀.”
@stephensenn.bsky.social et al. Stat Med. 2000 Mar 30;19(6):861-77.
@stephensenn.bsky.social et al. Stat Med. 2000 Mar 30;19(6):861-77.
August 20, 2025 at 7:35 AM
“…it is 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒈𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒆 to determine the summary measure solely by examining either 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙪𝙖𝙡 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙛𝙞𝙡𝙚 𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙫𝙚𝙨 or mean curves 𝙥𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙥. Instead, it is best to study an 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽𝘀.”
@stephensenn.bsky.social et al. Stat Med. 2000 Mar 30;19(6):861-77.
@stephensenn.bsky.social et al. Stat Med. 2000 Mar 30;19(6):861-77.
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
Whilst the scale and coverage of real world data is appealing, there remain problems with their use. A recent paper by Ali Abbasi, Rob Califf et al flagged some of the core issues – confounding, inadequate documentation, incomplete capture etc 3/9
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
August 18, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Whilst the scale and coverage of real world data is appealing, there remain problems with their use. A recent paper by Ali Abbasi, Rob Califf et al flagged some of the core issues – confounding, inadequate documentation, incomplete capture etc 3/9
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
There has been a lot of debate recently about the promise of real world data - the routine (observational) data collected on patients eg treatments received, clinical outcomes etc – for estimating treatment effects. But can they deliver? 1/9
#MethodologyMonday #123
#MethodologyMonday #123
August 18, 2025 at 6:35 AM
There has been a lot of debate recently about the promise of real world data - the routine (observational) data collected on patients eg treatments received, clinical outcomes etc – for estimating treatment effects. But can they deliver? 1/9
#MethodologyMonday #123
#MethodologyMonday #123
Determining sample size for pilot trials: a tutorial @bmj.com
Determining sample size for pilot trials: a tutorial
Pilot trials have a key role in preparing for definitive randomized trials, yet determining their sample size remains a common challenge. This article provides practical guidance, methods, and tools—i...
www.bmj.com
August 13, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Determining sample size for pilot trials: a tutorial @bmj.com
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
"With [some AI bullshit] you can go from a rough idea to a structured draft — in just 3 minutes"
We're so cooked.
We're so cooked.
August 5, 2025 at 1:05 AM
"With [some AI bullshit] you can go from a rough idea to a structured draft — in just 3 minutes"
We're so cooked.
We're so cooked.
Reposted by Lorenzo Lolli
"[T]he scientific enterprise is now witness to widespread, organized defection from the scientific public goods game. Large swaths of players, among them many scientists, reviewers, editors and publishers, are choosing to no longer make genuine contributions to the pot."
Today, our article "The entities enabling scientific fraud at scale are large, resilient, and growing rapidly" is finally published in PNAS. I hope that it proves to be a wake-up-call for the whole scientific community.
reeserichardson.blog/2025/08/04/a...
reeserichardson.blog/2025/08/04/a...
A do-or-die moment for the scientific enterprise
Reflecting on our paper “The entities enabling scientific fraud at scale are large, resilient, and growing rapidly”
reeserichardson.blog
August 5, 2025 at 7:22 AM
"[T]he scientific enterprise is now witness to widespread, organized defection from the scientific public goods game. Large swaths of players, among them many scientists, reviewers, editors and publishers, are choosing to no longer make genuine contributions to the pot."