Larry Warren
@lfwarren.bsky.social
Senior Economist at the Census Bureau
Macro Labor, Market Power, and Firm Dynamics
Views are my own
Macro Labor, Market Power, and Firm Dynamics
Views are my own
Pinned
Larry Warren
@lfwarren.bsky.social
· Jan 15
Hi #Econsky, I’m sharing a starter pack of macro labor economists. I’m sure I’m missing many. DM or reply if you’d like to be added (or removed!)
go.bsky.app/27MifGa
go.bsky.app/27MifGa
Reposted by Larry Warren
NBER launches initiative on economic measurement. nber.org/news/nber-la...
NBER Launches Initiative on Economic Measurement
nber.org
November 13, 2025 at 1:20 PM
NBER launches initiative on economic measurement. nber.org/news/nber-la...
Hey #EconSky 📈📉
Excited to finally share this working paper with Roozbeh Hosseini and Martin Gervais.
"Unemployment Insurance, Wage Pass-Through, and Endogenous Take-up"
www2.census.gov/library/work...
A Short 🧵:
Excited to finally share this working paper with Roozbeh Hosseini and Martin Gervais.
"Unemployment Insurance, Wage Pass-Through, and Endogenous Take-up"
www2.census.gov/library/work...
A Short 🧵:
September 17, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Hey #EconSky 📈📉
Excited to finally share this working paper with Roozbeh Hosseini and Martin Gervais.
"Unemployment Insurance, Wage Pass-Through, and Endogenous Take-up"
www2.census.gov/library/work...
A Short 🧵:
Excited to finally share this working paper with Roozbeh Hosseini and Martin Gervais.
"Unemployment Insurance, Wage Pass-Through, and Endogenous Take-up"
www2.census.gov/library/work...
A Short 🧵:
Reposted by Larry Warren
Forthcoming in the AER: "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter" by J. Carter Braxton, Kyle Herkenhoff, Jonathan Rothbaum, and Lawrence Schmidt. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter
(Forthcoming Article) - For whom has earnings risk changed, and why? We answer these questions by combining
the Kalman filter and EM-algorithm to estimate persistent and temporary earnings
for every i...
www.aeaweb.org
September 9, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Forthcoming in the AER: "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter" by J. Carter Braxton, Kyle Herkenhoff, Jonathan Rothbaum, and Lawrence Schmidt. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reposted by Larry Warren
I love economic history because for instance, you discover that a bicycle bubble happened in Great Britain during the 1890s
August 21, 2025 at 6:43 PM
I love economic history because for instance, you discover that a bicycle bubble happened in Great Britain during the 1890s
Reposted by Larry Warren
A fun/important little piece with @AtlantaFed
colleagues. Our survey center asked firms how exposed their supply chain was to imports. More import-intensive firms expect to raise prices more *and* the more their competitors import,the more they'll raise.
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...
colleagues. Our survey center asked firms how exposed their supply chain was to imports. More import-intensive firms expect to raise prices more *and* the more their competitors import,the more they'll raise.
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...
Will Tariffs Touch Off an Inflationary Impulse? Business Execs Think So.
This Policy Hub paper uses survey data to explore tariffs' potential inflationary impact and how it could spill over beyond those firms directly affected.
www.atlantafed.org
August 21, 2025 at 3:15 PM
A fun/important little piece with @AtlantaFed
colleagues. Our survey center asked firms how exposed their supply chain was to imports. More import-intensive firms expect to raise prices more *and* the more their competitors import,the more they'll raise.
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...
colleagues. Our survey center asked firms how exposed their supply chain was to imports. More import-intensive firms expect to raise prices more *and* the more their competitors import,the more they'll raise.
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...
Reposted by Larry Warren
Reposted by Larry Warren
ROFL = Real Outliers Fatally Lanced
TLDR = Too Lazy; Didn't Research
SMH = So Many Hypotheses
BRB = Bayes ... Really, Bayes?
IMHO = Is My Hypothesis Obvious?
DND = Distribution Not Defined
FAFO = Fanciful Analysis of Four Observations
JC = Jointly Comical
NFI = Never Forget Independence
TLDR = Too Lazy; Didn't Research
SMH = So Many Hypotheses
BRB = Bayes ... Really, Bayes?
IMHO = Is My Hypothesis Obvious?
DND = Distribution Not Defined
FAFO = Fanciful Analysis of Four Observations
JC = Jointly Comical
NFI = Never Forget Independence
July 14, 2025 at 2:20 PM
ROFL = Real Outliers Fatally Lanced
TLDR = Too Lazy; Didn't Research
SMH = So Many Hypotheses
BRB = Bayes ... Really, Bayes?
IMHO = Is My Hypothesis Obvious?
DND = Distribution Not Defined
FAFO = Fanciful Analysis of Four Observations
JC = Jointly Comical
NFI = Never Forget Independence
TLDR = Too Lazy; Didn't Research
SMH = So Many Hypotheses
BRB = Bayes ... Really, Bayes?
IMHO = Is My Hypothesis Obvious?
DND = Distribution Not Defined
FAFO = Fanciful Analysis of Four Observations
JC = Jointly Comical
NFI = Never Forget Independence
Reposted by Larry Warren
N = 16 workers
Workers were assigned to do multiple tasks
The authors don't cluster standard errors
I don't think we learn much from this study.
Workers were assigned to do multiple tasks
The authors don't cluster standard errors
I don't think we learn much from this study.
July 10, 2025 at 10:10 PM
N = 16 workers
Workers were assigned to do multiple tasks
The authors don't cluster standard errors
I don't think we learn much from this study.
Workers were assigned to do multiple tasks
The authors don't cluster standard errors
I don't think we learn much from this study.
Reposted by Larry Warren
We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers.
The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.
The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.
July 10, 2025 at 7:47 PM
We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers.
The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.
The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.
Reposted by Larry Warren
The American Time Use Survey is up for renewal, or cancellation.
OMB is gathering input on the data's importance.
@ipums.bsky.social organized a rapid response briefing to equip us with tools to effectively comment.
#EconSky #sociology #policysky
Register:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
OMB is gathering input on the data's importance.
@ipums.bsky.social organized a rapid response briefing to equip us with tools to effectively comment.
#EconSky #sociology #policysky
Register:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Rapid Response Data Briefing: American Time Use Survey. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
Did you know that the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) is up for renewal? Join us to learn:
- What's in the ATUS?
- Why is ATUS important?
- What are the risks facing its continued collection and publi...
us06web.zoom.us
July 8, 2025 at 8:04 PM
The American Time Use Survey is up for renewal, or cancellation.
OMB is gathering input on the data's importance.
@ipums.bsky.social organized a rapid response briefing to equip us with tools to effectively comment.
#EconSky #sociology #policysky
Register:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
OMB is gathering input on the data's importance.
@ipums.bsky.social organized a rapid response briefing to equip us with tools to effectively comment.
#EconSky #sociology #policysky
Register:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Larry Warren
This is a really good conference put on by the Bureau of Economics of the Federal Trade Commission. Submit a paper for the program via the link below. #economics #antitrust #econsky www.ftc.gov/news-events/...
Eighteenth Annual Microeconomics Conference
The Federal Trade Commission's Bureau of Economics and the Tobin Center for Economic Policy at Yale University will host the 18th Annual FTC Microeconomics Conference on November 13 and 14, 2025 in
www.ftc.gov
April 16, 2025 at 10:56 AM
This is a really good conference put on by the Bureau of Economics of the Federal Trade Commission. Submit a paper for the program via the link below. #economics #antitrust #econsky www.ftc.gov/news-events/...
Reposted by Larry Warren
Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Credible Answers to Hard Questions: Differences-in-Differences for Natural Experiments
This book introduces applied researchers to modern Differences-in-Differences (DID) methods, that they can use to obtain credible answers to hard causal inferen
papers.ssrn.com
April 18, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Larry Warren
*Please repost* @sjgreenwood.bsky.social and I just launched a new personalized feed (*please pin*) that we hope will become a "must use" for #academicsky. The feed shows posts about papers filtered by *your* follower network. It's become my default Bluesky experience bsky.app/profile/pape...
March 10, 2025 at 6:14 PM
*Please repost* @sjgreenwood.bsky.social and I just launched a new personalized feed (*please pin*) that we hope will become a "must use" for #academicsky. The feed shows posts about papers filtered by *your* follower network. It's become my default Bluesky experience bsky.app/profile/pape...
Reposted by Larry Warren
538-style poll collection has now been recreated by a small group of fans and former staff. all fully transparent and public now. return of live public aggregation is imminent
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Polls
docs.google.com
March 7, 2025 at 6:52 PM
538-style poll collection has now been recreated by a small group of fans and former staff. all fully transparent and public now. return of live public aggregation is imminent
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Reposted by Larry Warren
Forthcoming at the Journal of Political Economy: We find that consumer product markups increased more than 25 percent from 2006 to 2019.
One contribution is an approach to estimate IO-style models at scale, yielding flexible consumer preferences and estimates of marginal costs.
One contribution is an approach to estimate IO-style models at scale, yielding flexible consumer preferences and estimates of marginal costs.
March 5, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Forthcoming at the Journal of Political Economy: We find that consumer product markups increased more than 25 percent from 2006 to 2019.
One contribution is an approach to estimate IO-style models at scale, yielding flexible consumer preferences and estimates of marginal costs.
One contribution is an approach to estimate IO-style models at scale, yielding flexible consumer preferences and estimates of marginal costs.
Reposted by Larry Warren
Looking to do a fully funded, policy-relevant PhD in economics?
The ESRC has funded another joint CMA PhD studentship, this time with Lorenza Rossi and Stefano Fasani at Lancaster University, on the interaction of market power, price setting and macro dynamics.
Please share widely and apply!
The ESRC has funded another joint CMA PhD studentship, this time with Lorenza Rossi and Stefano Fasani at Lancaster University, on the interaction of market power, price setting and macro dynamics.
Please share widely and apply!
ESRC CASE PhD Studentship - Lancaster University
www.lancaster.ac.uk
February 24, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Looking to do a fully funded, policy-relevant PhD in economics?
The ESRC has funded another joint CMA PhD studentship, this time with Lorenza Rossi and Stefano Fasani at Lancaster University, on the interaction of market power, price setting and macro dynamics.
Please share widely and apply!
The ESRC has funded another joint CMA PhD studentship, this time with Lorenza Rossi and Stefano Fasani at Lancaster University, on the interaction of market power, price setting and macro dynamics.
Please share widely and apply!
Reposted by Larry Warren
It's a very sad day. Just notified that @iza.org is closing its doors as of 31 December 2025. At a time when labor is under attack and technological change moves at an ever-faster pace, I can't help but think that this is a short-sighted decision. My heart goes out to those folks who work there.
February 24, 2025 at 3:37 PM
It's a very sad day. Just notified that @iza.org is closing its doors as of 31 December 2025. At a time when labor is under attack and technological change moves at an ever-faster pace, I can't help but think that this is a short-sighted decision. My heart goes out to those folks who work there.
Reposted by Larry Warren
🚀 Exciting Opportunity! 🚀
#AI keeps me up at night. What will happen to work & workers? 🤔
I'm partnering with Schmidt Sciences to offer up to $200,000 in funding for early-career researchers! 💡
🗓️ Apply by March 31 2025
🙏 spread the word!
🔗 Learn more & apply schmidtsciences.org/ai-at-work
#EconSky
#AI keeps me up at night. What will happen to work & workers? 🤔
I'm partnering with Schmidt Sciences to offer up to $200,000 in funding for early-career researchers! 💡
🗓️ Apply by March 31 2025
🙏 spread the word!
🔗 Learn more & apply schmidtsciences.org/ai-at-work
#EconSky
February 18, 2025 at 11:24 PM
🚀 Exciting Opportunity! 🚀
#AI keeps me up at night. What will happen to work & workers? 🤔
I'm partnering with Schmidt Sciences to offer up to $200,000 in funding for early-career researchers! 💡
🗓️ Apply by March 31 2025
🙏 spread the word!
🔗 Learn more & apply schmidtsciences.org/ai-at-work
#EconSky
#AI keeps me up at night. What will happen to work & workers? 🤔
I'm partnering with Schmidt Sciences to offer up to $200,000 in funding for early-career researchers! 💡
🗓️ Apply by March 31 2025
🙏 spread the word!
🔗 Learn more & apply schmidtsciences.org/ai-at-work
#EconSky
Reposted by Larry Warren
Call for Papers! 4th DC Search and Matching will be 4/25-26. Submission deadline 3/10. Send us your papers! www.cvent.com/c/abstracts/...
Fourth DC Search & Match Workshop – CALL FOR PAPERS
www.cvent.com
February 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Call for Papers! 4th DC Search and Matching will be 4/25-26. Submission deadline 3/10. Send us your papers! www.cvent.com/c/abstracts/...
Reposted by Larry Warren
Heads up for anyone interested in the labour market impacts of AI:
Anthropic has released new data mapping conversations with Claude onto occupational tasks.
Anthropic has released new data mapping conversations with Claude onto occupational tasks.
How is AI being used across the economy?
We have some new research and datasets to share:
Paper: assets.anthropic.com/m/2e23255f1e...
Data: huggingface.co/datasets/Ant...
Blogpost: anthropic.com/news/the-ant...
1/
We have some new research and datasets to share:
Paper: assets.anthropic.com/m/2e23255f1e...
Data: huggingface.co/datasets/Ant...
Blogpost: anthropic.com/news/the-ant...
1/
February 11, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Heads up for anyone interested in the labour market impacts of AI:
Anthropic has released new data mapping conversations with Claude onto occupational tasks.
Anthropic has released new data mapping conversations with Claude onto occupational tasks.
Reposted by Larry Warren
We just launched a 16TB archive of every dataset that has been available on data.gov since November. This will be updated day by day as new datasets appear. It can be freely copied, and we're sharing the code behind it to help others make their own archives of data they depend on.
Announcing the Data.gov Archive | Library Innovation Lab
Today we released our archive of data.gov on Source Cooperative. The 16TB collection includes over 311,000 datasets harvested during 2024 and 2025, a complet...
lil.law.harvard.edu
February 6, 2025 at 9:23 PM
We just launched a 16TB archive of every dataset that has been available on data.gov since November. This will be updated day by day as new datasets appear. It can be freely copied, and we're sharing the code behind it to help others make their own archives of data they depend on.
Reposted by Larry Warren
In NYC there is a shop selling cashmere sweaters for dogs, in Amsterdam there is a toothbrush shop. If you are a goth looking for a partner you should move to a city. Finally, there is a forthcoming JET paper explaining this www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Spatial search
This paper considers a random search model where some locations provide sellers with better chances of meeting many buyers than other locations (for e…
www.sciencedirect.com
February 7, 2025 at 6:02 PM
In NYC there is a shop selling cashmere sweaters for dogs, in Amsterdam there is a toothbrush shop. If you are a goth looking for a partner you should move to a city. Finally, there is a forthcoming JET paper explaining this www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Larry Warren
Finally out in AEJ:Macro👉 The Evolution of US Retail Concentration w/@dominicsmith.bsky.social
Census data👉*National and local* concentration increased 1982-2012
Trends hold for product and industry markets
🔗https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20220249
@aeajournals.bsky.social
Census data👉*National and local* concentration increased 1982-2012
Trends hold for product and industry markets
🔗https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20220249
@aeajournals.bsky.social
January 31, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Finally out in AEJ:Macro👉 The Evolution of US Retail Concentration w/@dominicsmith.bsky.social
Census data👉*National and local* concentration increased 1982-2012
Trends hold for product and industry markets
🔗https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20220249
@aeajournals.bsky.social
Census data👉*National and local* concentration increased 1982-2012
Trends hold for product and industry markets
🔗https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20220249
@aeajournals.bsky.social
Reposted by Larry Warren
January 22, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Reposted by Larry Warren
So pleased my article on geo-coding addresses of 121 million + people in British censuses 1851-1911 is now out with Historical Methods! #openaccess
- map any census info (ages, occupations, birthplaces etc) by address
- link census to other spatial datasets
Get the code and data 👇
- map any census info (ages, occupations, birthplaces etc) by address
- link census to other spatial datasets
Get the code and data 👇
January 21, 2025 at 1:04 PM
So pleased my article on geo-coding addresses of 121 million + people in British censuses 1851-1911 is now out with Historical Methods! #openaccess
- map any census info (ages, occupations, birthplaces etc) by address
- link census to other spatial datasets
Get the code and data 👇
- map any census info (ages, occupations, birthplaces etc) by address
- link census to other spatial datasets
Get the code and data 👇