Junkbondinvestor
@junkbondinvest.bsky.social
Credit analyst. Focus on high yield bonds, leveraged loans, private credit, distressed debt, special situations.
https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/
https://www.junkbondinvestor.com/
Universities: "We won't capitulate to political pressure!"
*Federal funding stops*
Universities: "Actually, let's talk settlement terms"
*Federal funding stops*
Universities: "Actually, let's talk settlement terms"
August 4, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Universities: "We won't capitulate to political pressure!"
*Federal funding stops*
Universities: "Actually, let's talk settlement terms"
*Federal funding stops*
Universities: "Actually, let's talk settlement terms"
Brooklyn Mirage renovation: Planned reopening becomes bankruptcy filing.
Construction cost overruns meet EDM economics
Construction cost overruns meet EDM economics
August 4, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Brooklyn Mirage renovation: Planned reopening becomes bankruptcy filing.
Construction cost overruns meet EDM economics
Construction cost overruns meet EDM economics
Madison Realty CEO on PC evolution in CRE lending:
- Pre-GFC: Banks did 70-75% LTV
- Post-regulation: Banks limited to 50-55%
- Today: Non-banks fill the gap at higher leverage
Regulatory arbitrage at its finest
- Pre-GFC: Banks did 70-75% LTV
- Post-regulation: Banks limited to 50-55%
- Today: Non-banks fill the gap at higher leverage
Regulatory arbitrage at its finest
August 4, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Madison Realty CEO on PC evolution in CRE lending:
- Pre-GFC: Banks did 70-75% LTV
- Post-regulation: Banks limited to 50-55%
- Today: Non-banks fill the gap at higher leverage
Regulatory arbitrage at its finest
- Pre-GFC: Banks did 70-75% LTV
- Post-regulation: Banks limited to 50-55%
- Today: Non-banks fill the gap at higher leverage
Regulatory arbitrage at its finest
BDCs sorted by dividend yield
18% at the high end, 6% at the low end
The market's way of telling you which ones are in trouble
Source: Raymond James
18% at the high end, 6% at the low end
The market's way of telling you which ones are in trouble
Source: Raymond James
August 4, 2025 at 12:23 PM
BDCs sorted by dividend yield
18% at the high end, 6% at the low end
The market's way of telling you which ones are in trouble
Source: Raymond James
18% at the high end, 6% at the low end
The market's way of telling you which ones are in trouble
Source: Raymond James
You weren’t the lender.
You weren’t the sponsor.
You were the advisor.
All fees. All good.
You weren’t the sponsor.
You were the advisor.
All fees. All good.
August 2, 2025 at 11:54 AM
You weren’t the lender.
You weren’t the sponsor.
You were the advisor.
All fees. All good.
You weren’t the sponsor.
You were the advisor.
All fees. All good.
Sponsor reading a text from the relationship lender asking if they’re still “partners.”
July 31, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Sponsor reading a text from the relationship lender asking if they’re still “partners.”
Secondaries managers raising $81 billion in six months, beating most full years
Peak alternative investing: The exit strategy needs its own funding boom
Peak alternative investing: The exit strategy needs its own funding boom
July 31, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Secondaries managers raising $81 billion in six months, beating most full years
Peak alternative investing: The exit strategy needs its own funding boom
Peak alternative investing: The exit strategy needs its own funding boom
Vista saving $200 million by abandoning private credit for BSL
Innovation: Rediscovering traditional banking
Innovation: Rediscovering traditional banking
July 31, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Vista saving $200 million by abandoning private credit for BSL
Innovation: Rediscovering traditional banking
Innovation: Rediscovering traditional banking
Spent $4k on travel to confirm management still lying
July 30, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Spent $4k on travel to confirm management still lying
2006: 100 unicorns, minimal valuation
2025: 2,000+ unicorns, $4 trillion value
Maximum value, minimum liquidity.
2025: 2,000+ unicorns, $4 trillion value
Maximum value, minimum liquidity.
July 30, 2025 at 4:58 PM
2006: 100 unicorns, minimal valuation
2025: 2,000+ unicorns, $4 trillion value
Maximum value, minimum liquidity.
2025: 2,000+ unicorns, $4 trillion value
Maximum value, minimum liquidity.
Private credit’s reach has no limits
July 30, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Private credit’s reach has no limits
Calpers: "We have very strong conviction in private equity"
Private Equity: *hasn't exited a deal in 18 months*
Calpers: "That's why we call it conviction"
Private Equity: *hasn't exited a deal in 18 months*
Calpers: "That's why we call it conviction"
July 30, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Calpers: "We have very strong conviction in private equity"
Private Equity: *hasn't exited a deal in 18 months*
Calpers: "That's why we call it conviction"
Private Equity: *hasn't exited a deal in 18 months*
Calpers: "That's why we call it conviction"
Observation: 96% of large European companies are private
Apollo conclusion: "Private credit opportunity"
Source: Apollo
Apollo conclusion: "Private credit opportunity"
Source: Apollo
July 29, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Observation: 96% of large European companies are private
Apollo conclusion: "Private credit opportunity"
Source: Apollo
Apollo conclusion: "Private credit opportunity"
Source: Apollo
*JPMORGAN NEARS DEAL TO TAKE OVER APPLE'S CREDIT CARD: WSJ
Goldman Sachs consumer banking strategy:
Phase 1: Launch with great fanfare
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Call JPMorgan
$JPM $GS
Goldman Sachs consumer banking strategy:
Phase 1: Launch with great fanfare
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Call JPMorgan
$JPM $GS
July 29, 2025 at 3:11 PM
*JPMORGAN NEARS DEAL TO TAKE OVER APPLE'S CREDIT CARD: WSJ
Goldman Sachs consumer banking strategy:
Phase 1: Launch with great fanfare
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Call JPMorgan
$JPM $GS
Goldman Sachs consumer banking strategy:
Phase 1: Launch with great fanfare
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Call JPMorgan
$JPM $GS
PE bankruptcy statistics:
All bankruptcies: 11% PE-owned
$1B+ bankruptcies: 54% PE-owned
Math: Go big or go home, preferably both
All bankruptcies: 11% PE-owned
$1B+ bankruptcies: 54% PE-owned
Math: Go big or go home, preferably both
July 29, 2025 at 3:09 PM
PE bankruptcy statistics:
All bankruptcies: 11% PE-owned
$1B+ bankruptcies: 54% PE-owned
Math: Go big or go home, preferably both
All bankruptcies: 11% PE-owned
$1B+ bankruptcies: 54% PE-owned
Math: Go big or go home, preferably both
Private credit showing divergent performance by borrower size:
- Smaller companies: defaults increasing
- Larger companies: defaults declining sharply
- Overall market: trending down but driven by mega-deal performance
Source: Proskauer
- Smaller companies: defaults increasing
- Larger companies: defaults declining sharply
- Overall market: trending down but driven by mega-deal performance
Source: Proskauer
July 29, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Private credit showing divergent performance by borrower size:
- Smaller companies: defaults increasing
- Larger companies: defaults declining sharply
- Overall market: trending down but driven by mega-deal performance
Source: Proskauer
- Smaller companies: defaults increasing
- Larger companies: defaults declining sharply
- Overall market: trending down but driven by mega-deal performance
Source: Proskauer
3 investments for every exit is the kind of ratio that makes LPs start asking uncomfortable questions about liquidity...
Source: PitchBook
Source: PitchBook
July 29, 2025 at 3:05 PM
3 investments for every exit is the kind of ratio that makes LPs start asking uncomfortable questions about liquidity...
Source: PitchBook
Source: PitchBook
Core middle market: 85% recoveries
Upper middle market: 72% recoveries
I'm sure the smaller deals just happen to be better credits...
Upper middle market: 72% recoveries
I'm sure the smaller deals just happen to be better credits...
July 28, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Core middle market: 85% recoveries
Upper middle market: 72% recoveries
I'm sure the smaller deals just happen to be better credits...
Upper middle market: 72% recoveries
I'm sure the smaller deals just happen to be better credits...
Me at 2pm after ordering extra everything at Chipotle
July 25, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Me at 2pm after ordering extra everything at Chipotle
Sponsor and lender after spending 12 minutes touring the warehouse before approving 8x leverage
July 25, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Sponsor and lender after spending 12 minutes touring the warehouse before approving 8x leverage
Current state of the lev loan market:
Most volume is repricings, supply is negative, and almost everything’s trading above par
The great compression continues
Most volume is repricings, supply is negative, and almost everything’s trading above par
The great compression continues
July 25, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Current state of the lev loan market:
Most volume is repricings, supply is negative, and almost everything’s trading above par
The great compression continues
Most volume is repricings, supply is negative, and almost everything’s trading above par
The great compression continues
Great, more PE/PC in the dentistry space.
Now in the UK. Enjoy those unnecessary fillings!
Now in the UK. Enjoy those unnecessary fillings!
July 25, 2025 at 1:26 PM
Great, more PE/PC in the dentistry space.
Now in the UK. Enjoy those unnecessary fillings!
Now in the UK. Enjoy those unnecessary fillings!
Private Credit: soon coming to a farm near you!
July 25, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Private Credit: soon coming to a farm near you!
HY PM debating to overweight BBs at record-tight spreads or reach for yield in dog-shit CCCs:
July 23, 2025 at 7:36 PM
HY PM debating to overweight BBs at record-tight spreads or reach for yield in dog-shit CCCs:
Want to know how hot the HY market is?
$24B+ in junk bond supply this month
Busiest July since 2021
The issuance machine is back
$HYG $JNK
$24B+ in junk bond supply this month
Busiest July since 2021
The issuance machine is back
$HYG $JNK
July 23, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Want to know how hot the HY market is?
$24B+ in junk bond supply this month
Busiest July since 2021
The issuance machine is back
$HYG $JNK
$24B+ in junk bond supply this month
Busiest July since 2021
The issuance machine is back
$HYG $JNK