John Stepek
@johnstepek.bsky.social
Sign up for my award-winning daily newsletter, Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth
Are we heading for a Rachel Reeves moment?
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Are We Heading for a Rachel Reeves Moment?
The gilts market has taken fright at a series of confusing mixed messages on the upcoming budget.
www.bloomberg.com
November 14, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Are we heading for a Rachel Reeves moment?
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
How much do markets really care about the turmoil at the top of the Labour government, and the resulting continuation of Britain's years of political chaos? Today's artisanal, home-brewed Money Distilled has a look www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
What UK Political Instability Means for Markets
Hopes for a period of relative calm were dashed some time ago. Is yet another Prime Minister on the cards?
www.bloomberg.com
November 12, 2025 at 2:59 PM
How much do markets really care about the turmoil at the top of the Labour government, and the resulting continuation of Britain's years of political chaos? Today's artisanal, home-brewed Money Distilled has a look www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Scrapping stamp duty on houses is a great idea - let's hope we don't have to wait until 2029. Meanwhile, the latest RICS survey suggests the UK housing market will enter a period of stasis as buyers and sellers both wait nervously for the November budget. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Scrapping Stamp Tax on UK Homes Is a Great Idea
It’s one of the clearest examples of a tax cut that would boost growth.
www.bloomberg.com
October 9, 2025 at 1:01 PM
Scrapping stamp duty on houses is a great idea - let's hope we don't have to wait until 2029. Meanwhile, the latest RICS survey suggests the UK housing market will enter a period of stasis as buyers and sellers both wait nervously for the November budget. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The stock market may only represent a small element of London's global financial centre status, but having slipped below Oman in terms of IPO activity we might want to have a think about actually doing something to arrest the decline. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
We Need to Reverse the London Market's Decline
The dearth of new listings points to deeper problems with the UK equity market.
www.bloomberg.com
October 2, 2025 at 3:03 PM
The stock market may only represent a small element of London's global financial centre status, but having slipped below Oman in terms of IPO activity we might want to have a think about actually doing something to arrest the decline. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The UK housing market is in the unusual position of being one of the dullest asset markets around right now. This is a good thing. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
A Boring Housing Market Is Good News for Buyers
Sellers appear to realise that “peak” pricing is now in the past.
www.bloomberg.com
October 1, 2025 at 1:26 PM
The UK housing market is in the unusual position of being one of the dullest asset markets around right now. This is a good thing. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Rachel Reeves can be pleased with her conference performance yesterday (and it was good of Andy Burnham to take one for the team). But for all the chatter, we're none the wiser about the Budget www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Don’t Bet on the Manifesto Surviving the Budget
Rachel Reeves bolstered her authority with her party, but we’re none the wiser about her tax plans.
www.bloomberg.com
September 30, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Rachel Reeves can be pleased with her conference performance yesterday (and it was good of Andy Burnham to take one for the team). But for all the chatter, we're none the wiser about the Budget www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Can't believe I'm getting mildly edgy about the gold price when a $30k baby naming service exists ('it's "baby name branding" ackchewually'), but I've always been a cautious fellow.
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www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Can Gold’s Record-Breaking Streak Continue?
Investors have been buying at the fastest rate since the last gold peak in 2020.
www.bloomberg.com
September 29, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Can't believe I'm getting mildly edgy about the gold price when a $30k baby naming service exists ('it's "baby name branding" ackchewually'), but I've always been a cautious fellow.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
How not to be in hock to the bond markets: a beginner's guide, or, Blofeld is You www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
How Not to Be In Hock to the Bond Markets
Be more productive, cut unnecessary spending or raise taxes. Or all three.
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September 25, 2025 at 1:32 PM
How not to be in hock to the bond markets: a beginner's guide, or, Blofeld is You www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Gold! What could possibly put a stop to its relentless record setting? www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
What Could Put an End to This Gold Bull Market?
Gold has been smashing records this week, and it’s only Tuesday. How much longer can it continue?
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September 23, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Gold! What could possibly put a stop to its relentless record setting? www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
UK chancellor Rachel Reeves has another black hole to fill in the November Budget. With major tax rises ruled out (in theory) and spending cuts off the table, something has to give. But what? www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Rachel Reeves Might Have To Break Her Promises
Given the options on the table, the manifesto pledge is looking vulnerable.
www.bloomberg.com
September 22, 2025 at 1:22 PM
UK chancellor Rachel Reeves has another black hole to fill in the November Budget. With major tax rises ruled out (in theory) and spending cuts off the table, something has to give. But what? www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
I'm a big fan of the Merryn Talks Money podcast (sometimes I'm even on it!) but this is one of the best episodes yet. I don't think I've heard a clearer or more comprehensive explanation of the UK's energy problems than this interview with Professor Dieter Helm podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
The Real Reason UK Energy Prices Are Skyrocketing
Podcast Episode · Merryn Talks Money · 15/09/2025 · 32m
podcasts.apple.com
September 16, 2025 at 7:13 AM
I'm a big fan of the Merryn Talks Money podcast (sometimes I'm even on it!) but this is one of the best episodes yet. I don't think I've heard a clearer or more comprehensive explanation of the UK's energy problems than this interview with Professor Dieter Helm podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
Returning to my desk after a fortnight away, it's useful to take a look at what's changed and what hasn't. At least two things stand out, for different reasons - gold and gilts... www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
What's Changed in Markets So Far This Month?
And will this week’s Federal Reserve meeting mark a turning point?
www.bloomberg.com
September 15, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Returning to my desk after a fortnight away, it's useful to take a look at what's changed and what hasn't. At least two things stand out, for different reasons - gold and gilts... www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
How can we prevent AI from causing a jobs catastrophe? This was a really fascinating (and slightly unnerving) session of Merryn's Adam Smith Fringe show at Panmure House in Edinburgh - listen in here podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/h...
How to Prevent AI From Causing an Economic Catastrophe
Podcast Episode · Merryn Talks Money · 01/09/2025 · 40m
podcasts.apple.com
September 1, 2025 at 12:38 PM
How can we prevent AI from causing a jobs catastrophe? This was a really fascinating (and slightly unnerving) session of Merryn's Adam Smith Fringe show at Panmure House in Edinburgh - listen in here podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/h...
Realise it looks a long shot just now, but I'm not sure I can think of anything that would better reinvigorate the UK stock market and give us a "Tell Sid" retail investor moment than an IPO of Rolls-Royce's SMR division. And think of the YIMBY boost. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Rolls-Royce Exploring Funding Options for Reactor Unit, FT Says
Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc has held exploratory talks with advisers over funding options, including an initial public offering, for its small nuclear reactor unit, according to the Financial Times.
www.bloomberg.com
September 1, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Realise it looks a long shot just now, but I'm not sure I can think of anything that would better reinvigorate the UK stock market and give us a "Tell Sid" retail investor moment than an IPO of Rolls-Royce's SMR division. And think of the YIMBY boost. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
An information "black hole" has opened up ahead of the pending autumn Budget, creating an emotional rollercoaster for anyone subject to UK tax.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The Latest Budget Rumour Whacks Britain’s Banks
The political risks of allowing an information “black hole” to open up are becoming all too clear.
www.bloomberg.com
August 29, 2025 at 1:35 PM
An information "black hole" has opened up ahead of the pending autumn Budget, creating an emotional rollercoaster for anyone subject to UK tax.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
The ideal tax system should be simple enough that the rewards accruing to those both willing to, and in a position to engage in complex admin, are just insufficiently high to be worth the effort. We are very far away from that ideal.
August 29, 2025 at 8:50 AM
The ideal tax system should be simple enough that the rewards accruing to those both willing to, and in a position to engage in complex admin, are just insufficiently high to be worth the effort. We are very far away from that ideal.
Today's Money Distilled is on post-Black Death inflation controls in 1350s England, the minimum wage, and wage compression, and comes with a massive hat tip to Dr Anton Howes www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
A Warning From 1300s England on Wage Controls
Government intervention in prices tends to have negative side effects.
www.bloomberg.com
August 28, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Today's Money Distilled is on post-Black Death inflation controls in 1350s England, the minimum wage, and wage compression, and comes with a massive hat tip to Dr Anton Howes www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
AI is coming for at least some jobs. (Not mine, obviously. But yours? Looks iffy, I hate to say it).
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
What AI Job Disruption Might Mean For Markets
We may not be facing a machine takeover, but the threat to certain sectors is real.
www.bloomberg.com
August 27, 2025 at 2:31 PM
AI is coming for at least some jobs. (Not mine, obviously. But yours? Looks iffy, I hate to say it).
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
"Don't fight the Fed" is a classic old Wall Street staple - but it seems that no one told Donald Trump www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
‘Don’t Fight the Fed’ Doesn't Apply to Trump
The US President and the US central bank are at loggerheads. Who’ll win?
www.bloomberg.com
August 26, 2025 at 12:29 PM
"Don't fight the Fed" is a classic old Wall Street staple - but it seems that no one told Donald Trump www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Why are long-term gilt (and other global government bond) yields rising and when will markets get properly worried about it? www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Why It’s Worth Watching Long-Term Gilt Yields
Markets seem to be shrugging off rising long-term borrowing costs for now, but it can’t last.
www.bloomberg.com
August 21, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Why are long-term gilt (and other global government bond) yields rising and when will markets get properly worried about it? www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
UK interest rates are at increasing risk of turning negative, and by some measures, already have www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Inflation is Catching Up With UK Interest Rates
On some measures, the Bank of England rate has already turned negative.
www.bloomberg.com
August 20, 2025 at 1:12 PM
UK interest rates are at increasing risk of turning negative, and by some measures, already have www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
In the grand pantheon of bad taxes, stamp duty (on houses in this particular case) has to be near the top. It'd be great if the chancellor got rid of it. But there's many a slip twixt cup and lip, as this government has already amply demonstrated. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Scrap Stamp Duty? Great Idea. But There's a But
The way the UK currently taxes property is awful. But it could certainly get worse.
www.bloomberg.com
August 19, 2025 at 2:57 PM
In the grand pantheon of bad taxes, stamp duty (on houses in this particular case) has to be near the top. It'd be great if the chancellor got rid of it. But there's many a slip twixt cup and lip, as this government has already amply demonstrated. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
How expensive are US stocks? More expensive than they were at the start of the year, reckons Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital - and they weren't great value back then. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
US Stocks Look Even Pricier Now Than In January
As Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital points out, it might be time to focus more on defensive investing.
www.bloomberg.com
August 18, 2025 at 12:29 PM
How expensive are US stocks? More expensive than they were at the start of the year, reckons Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital - and they weren't great value back then. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
What I love about this Howard Marks memo is that you could hand it to a beginner, and if they read it, and Googled any terms they didn't quite grasp, they'd have gained a solid analytical framework for understanding financial markets in under half an hour. www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/mem...
The Calculus of Value
In his latest memo, Howard Marks sets forth the essence of value and price, as well as the critical relationship between the two.
www.oaktreecapital.com
August 18, 2025 at 9:20 AM
What I love about this Howard Marks memo is that you could hand it to a beginner, and if they read it, and Googled any terms they didn't quite grasp, they'd have gained a solid analytical framework for understanding financial markets in under half an hour. www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/mem...