Hannah Randolph
hlrandolph.bsky.social
Hannah Randolph
@hlrandolph.bsky.social
Applied microeconomist working on social policy, labour market, and immigration @fraserofallander.bsky.social (University of Strathclyde) (she/her) 🏳️‍🌈
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
If the two-child limit to Universal Credit is abolished, the Scottish Government will save £155 million next year. In our second budget preview, we discuss how these savings could be spent on further measures to tackle child poverty:

fraserofallander.org/budget-previ...
Implications for Scotland of abolishing the two-child limit | FAI
This article considers the implications for Scotland if the UK Government were to abolish the two-child limit to Universal Credit in its 2025 Autumn Budget.
fraserofallander.org
November 13, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
🎯 Can Scotland hit its 2030 child poverty targets?

Join FAI researchers + a panel with the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, The Robertson Trust & I-SPHERE (Heriot-Watt) to explore funding, policy priorities & solutions.

4pm on Thursday 18th September #FAI50

buff.ly/R37Qwm7
September 16, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Really interesting conversation, especially the long-run view of challenges to the Scottish economy - well worth a listen!
In the second episode of our Key Figures interview series, we talk to Elizabeth Ashcroft, one of the original editors of our long-running Economic Commentaries. We cover the origins of the Institute and her thoughts on the changing economic landscape in Scotland.

Listen here:
Podcast: Key Figures - Elizabeth Ashcroft | FAI
In the second episode of our Key Figures interview series, we talk to Elizabeth Ashcroft, one of the original editors of our long-running Economic Commentaries. We cover her life, the origins of the…
buff.ly
September 12, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
The UK autumn budget statement is scheduled for November 26. Join @hlrandolph.bsky.social and @joaospsousa.bsky.social to learn more about the pressures facing the chancellor and what it might mean for the Scottish budget in our latest podcast:
buff.ly
September 9, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
Employment statistics are designed to tell us what's going on in the labour market, but problems with the Labour Force Survey since the pandemic have muddied the waters. Listen to our latest podcast to hear more 🎧
buff.ly/VUwUrbi
August 22, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
🚨 We're delighted to announce our (near) final programme for our Economic and Social Policy Conference on the 18th and 19th September, including a new live conference page on our site.

Read more: buff.ly/OK8xjug
The Fraser of Allander Institute Economic and Social Policy Conference 2025 | FAI
A few weeks ago, we announced our exciting plans to celebrate the Fraser of Allander’s 50th anniversary. As part of this, we were thrilled to announce that we are hosting our first economic and…
fraserofallander.org
August 15, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Really fun episode to do, I learned a huge amount about what cities like London and New York have in place and what aspects of design might be important for Glasgow.

Stay tuned for a peak fares episode later this autumn...
Could congestion charging reduce gridlock in Glasgow? Join FAI economists Josh Hampson and Hannah Randolph to hear how proposals that are currently being debated compare to other policies and cities in our latest podcast episode 👇
Gridlock Glasgow: Exploring Congestion Charging | FAI
This week, Hannah Randolph is joined by Josh Hampson to explore the growing conversation around congestion charging in Glasgow.
buff.ly
August 1, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
This video is, unsurprisingly, a mix of straightforward lies and deliberately misleading half-truths.

My earlier analysis on the long-run fiscal impact of recent migrants is here:

docs.google.com/document/d/e...
July 29, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Some key points from this: meeting the child poverty targets will require significant measures, and putting parents into work won't be enough - some social security action (and a lot of investment) needed as well.
What will it take to reach Scotland's 2030 child poverty targets? Our latest blog rounds up insights from recent research into the role of raising income from work, increasing social security, and other options.
No shortcuts to Scotland’s child poverty targets | FAI
This week, the Scottish Government published their child poverty progress report for 2024-25. The report lays out what policies have been undertaken to reduce child poverty and estimates the impact…
buff.ly
June 20, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
Anyone claiming recent migrants are mostly "low-skilled"/low-paid should be forced to explain this chart.

[more detailed data also shows relatively rapid earnings progression/catch-up among most recent arrivals]
May 12, 2025 at 7:00 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
This won't have much impact on net migration, but will hinder integration, promote "churn", and increase hardship.

Mean-spirited, unnecessary, and unpopular.

www.ft.com/content/f844...
Migrants will have to spend decade in UK before applying to stay
Government to also end visas for care workers as part of immigration clampdown
www.ft.com
May 12, 2025 at 6:35 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
To learn more, join FAI economists @hlrandolph.bsky.social and @chirstyresearch.bsky.social at the @scothealtheq.bsky.social webinar tomorrow! Follow the link to register by the end of the day.

buff.ly/eiwzgOg
A Future at Risk: Child Poverty and Health Inequalities in Scotland
Join us for our second webinar, focusing on child poverty in Scotland and its relationship with health inequality.
buff.ly
April 8, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
New podcast out today reflecting on what comes next after Scotland missed its interim child poverty targets.

Featuring Chris Birt from @jrf-uk.bsky.social with our own @chirstyresearch.bsky.social and @hlrandolph.bsky.social
Child Poverty 2025 Podcast with Chris Birt | FAI
In this episode, we discuss the latest child poverty statistics, Scotland’s child poverty targets, and where we go from here.
buff.ly
April 3, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
Join us for our webinar, "A Future at Risk: Child Poverty and Health Inequalities in Scotland"

ft. @chirstyresearch.bsky.social @hlrandolph.bsky.social and Ruth Dundas on child poverty in Scotland and its relationship with health inequality.

Sign up here: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/a-future-a...
A Future at Risk: Child Poverty and Health Inequalities in Scotland
Join us for our second webinar, focusing on child poverty in Scotland and its relationship with health inequality.
www.eventbrite.co.uk
April 2, 2025 at 8:43 AM
New blog out discussing the latest child poverty stats, including how close Scotland came to meeting the interim targets and what we're looking out for next.
Child poverty stats for 2023/24 are out today. Child poverty fell on three of four main measures, but ultimately missed the interim targets.

Some highlights from our blog post below 👇 (1/7)

buff.ly/Gl9Cd22
March 27, 2025 at 1:41 PM
The stats this morning show 22% relative child poverty, down from 26% last year - but not by enough to meet the 18% interim target.

More from us later - in the meantime, read our blog for more on how Scottish Child Payment is captured in survey data 👇
The Scottish Child Payment (SCP) is the Scottish Government’s flagship policy for reducing child poverty. But how do we know if it’s working?

Learn more about the data used to produce income and poverty statistics for Scotland in our latest blog post: buff.ly/98ctQ2y
fraserofallander.org
March 27, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
How can Scotland meet its child poverty targets? Our latest report models the size of the challenge and shows the impact of policy packages to reach the targets by 2030/31.

Read more: buff.ly/pPKCwNw
buff.ly
March 24, 2025 at 8:05 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
Next week, we'll find out if Scotland has hit its interim child poverty targets. We've been working away behind the scenes and will have some reports and reflections out next week.

For now, what are we looking our for in the stats? Read more here:
Will Scotland hit its interim child poverty targets? | FAI
In 2017, the Child Poverty (Scotland) Act set statutory targets for child poverty rates – one set of interim targets due in 2023/24, and a final set due in 2030/31. The latest Scottish child poverty…
buff.ly
March 20, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
Research by @uofgartshums.bsky.social with @fraserofallander.org reveals innovative tax and benefits policies that could dramatically improve financial security for UK screen industry freelancers – and potentially reverse a worrying exodus of talent from the sector.

Read more ➡️ gla.ac/43orK91
March 6, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
🎧 New podcast episode 🎧

Ever heard us talk about Barnett consequentials and wanted to know more? @joaosousa.bsky.social and @hlrandolph.bsky.social discuss how the Barnett formula works and what it means for devolved fiscal policy in our latest episode.

fraserofallander.org/podcast-what...
fraserofallander.org
March 4, 2025 at 8:15 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
In research, too often we get only a snapshot of how lives are shaped by policy. This w/paper shares findings from walking alongside those at sharp end of austerity for more than a decade.

Spoiler: more cuts to welfare & conditionality are not the answer.

sticerd.lse.ac.uk/case/_new/pu...
A decade on: Walking the sharp edge of the UK’s social security system
The UK’s social security landscape and public services infrastructure have been transformed since the Conservatives took office in 2010, initially as part of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The collision of austerity and a punitive approach to welfare reform have seen a drastic and far-reaching hollowing out of provision, which left the welfare state in poor health to respond to Covid-19 and then the cost-of-living crisis. There is growing evidence documenting the impact of these changes on society, and a greater appreciation of the harm caused by inadequate social security provision and under-resourced, failing public services. However, not enough is known about how these changes map onto the experiences of individuals over time. This working paper corrects this, reporting on in-depth research with those at the sharp edge of the social security system. The researchers have conducted repeat interviews with ten individuals for more than ten years, with the most recent interviews taking place during the winter of 2023-24. This research uncovers the extent to which social security and the wider infrastructure routinely fails individuals and their families. It highlights the harms caused by conditionality, and reveals the extent to which repeated fights for entitlement to support can grind people down over time.
sticerd.lse.ac.uk
February 5, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
Follow the link to read our discussion of the decision to mitigate the two-child limit, other devolved social security decisions, and how they relate to fiscal sustainability in Scotland.
buff.ly
February 4, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
🎧New podcast episode 🎧

Luke Michaelides and Phil Gooding of ONS join @HL_Randolph to talk about how inflation statistics are produced and what they mean for households and businesses: https://buff.ly/4fqxbHv
November 26, 2024 at 8:00 AM
For all the hard-core fiscal policy fans (of which there are legion, presumably), please click through to the full publication! @joaosousa.bsky.social discusses the significance of all post-war chancellors' first budgets, well worth a full read.

(The book deal is pending no doubt 🤞)
October 28, 2024 at 2:59 PM
Reposted by Hannah Randolph
@joaosousa.bsky.social joins @hlrandolph.bsky.social to discuss our expectations for Rachel Reeves' first budget on Wednesday and what we can learn from past chancellors' first budgets:
Podcast: Rachel Reeves’ first budget | FAI
Deputy Director João Sousa joins FAI economist Hannah Randolph to discuss our expectations for the budget statement on Wednesday as well as what we can learn from past chancellors’ first budgets and…
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October 28, 2024 at 1:15 PM