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@gordongrieve.bsky.social
Hi I'm taking an extended break from X.
It's all been said.
Many thanks for engaging!
It's all been said.
Many thanks for engaging!
November 17, 2024 at 10:34 PM
Hi I'm taking an extended break from X.
It's all been said.
Many thanks for engaging!
It's all been said.
Many thanks for engaging!
Early stages of a prolonged expansion, seems, from all the data?
November 17, 2024 at 10:34 PM
Early stages of a prolonged expansion, seems, from all the data?
Powell just said that the latest BEA release has removed some of the risks they saw for the economy, as GDI converged up to GDP, and personal income and the savings rate was revised up to comfortable levels.
November 17, 2024 at 10:34 PM
Powell just said that the latest BEA release has removed some of the risks they saw for the economy, as GDI converged up to GDP, and personal income and the savings rate was revised up to comfortable levels.
Just saying, the bar was already plenty low for even Harris to easily step over it, and now it's gone down even more. Seems like it's become a sour grape story:
November 17, 2024 at 10:31 PM
Just saying, the bar was already plenty low for even Harris to easily step over it, and now it's gone down even more. Seems like it's become a sour grape story:
Hint: When you have two people fighting in public first thing is to pull them apart and keep them apart, and then the discussion happens.
November 17, 2024 at 10:31 PM
Hint: When you have two people fighting in public first thing is to pull them apart and keep them apart, and then the discussion happens.
Looking good since the BEA revisions- even more like what you'd expect with a 6.5% gov deficit. ;)
November 17, 2024 at 10:31 PM
Looking good since the BEA revisions- even more like what you'd expect with a 6.5% gov deficit. ;)
Another day of good news for the economy as the boom continues?
November 17, 2024 at 10:31 PM
Another day of good news for the economy as the boom continues?
What do you make of this?
;)
;)
November 17, 2024 at 10:31 PM
What do you make of this?
;)
;)
About 2.5 million housing starts in 1972 with a population of about 207 million, just as oil pricing was shifting from the Texas Railroad Commission to Saudi Arabia...
November 17, 2024 at 10:31 PM
About 2.5 million housing starts in 1972 with a population of about 207 million, just as oil pricing was shifting from the Texas Railroad Commission to Saudi Arabia...
As previously discussed, interest driven growth can be obscenely regressive:
November 17, 2024 at 10:24 PM
As previously discussed, interest driven growth can be obscenely regressive:
Yes, there are issues with this series/more to the story, but it's nonetheless an indication that the multi-year covid employment growth reversal from the spike up has run its course and showing signs of heading back up:
November 17, 2024 at 10:12 PM
Yes, there are issues with this series/more to the story, but it's nonetheless an indication that the multi-year covid employment growth reversal from the spike up has run its course and showing signs of heading back up:
As previously discussed, unless mid-east peace proposals begin with a credible plan for secure borders...
November 17, 2024 at 10:12 PM
As previously discussed, unless mid-east peace proposals begin with a credible plan for secure borders...
I don't think the macro economy takes a dive with a deficit this large, but these discussions get me wondering if I'm missing something. We'll see!
The market is in for a 'rude awakening' about the U.S. GDP print: Danielle DiMartino Booth | Watch ()
The market is in for a 'rude awakening' about the U.S. GDP print: Danielle DiMartino Booth | Watch ()
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
I don't think the macro economy takes a dive with a deficit this large, but these discussions get me wondering if I'm missing something. We'll see!
The market is in for a 'rude awakening' about the U.S. GDP print: Danielle DiMartino Booth | Watch ()
The market is in for a 'rude awakening' about the U.S. GDP print: Danielle DiMartino Booth | Watch ()
The Fed using the fixed exchange rate construct of r* etc. to steer policy with a floating exchange rate is yet another epic blunder and a black mark on the institution, particularly with decades of data from 0 rates in Japan, the US, and the euro area. :(
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
The Fed using the fixed exchange rate construct of r* etc. to steer policy with a floating exchange rate is yet another epic blunder and a black mark on the institution, particularly with decades of data from 0 rates in Japan, the US, and the euro area. :(
The expansion that started with the rate hikes continues unabated, seems?
Fade the 6+% gov deficit and pay the price...
;)
Fade the 6+% gov deficit and pay the price...
;)
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
The expansion that started with the rate hikes continues unabated, seems?
Fade the 6+% gov deficit and pay the price...
;)
Fade the 6+% gov deficit and pay the price...
;)
Rate cut is working!
;)
;)
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
Rate cut is working!
;)
;)
Powell downplays impact of rate cut on Trump-Harris presidential race ()
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
Powell downplays impact of rate cut on Trump-Harris presidential race ()
The Fed's real rate thing is a fixed fx and not floating fx construct, where the nominal rate is market driven as borrowers compete for limited reserves. It's not applicable to (non reserve constrained) floating fx with the cb setting the policy rate.
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
The Fed's real rate thing is a fixed fx and not floating fx construct, where the nominal rate is market driven as borrowers compete for limited reserves. It's not applicable to (non reserve constrained) floating fx with the cb setting the policy rate.
Trump Announces New Cryptocurrency Venture and Plan to Make the U.S. the 'Crypto Capital of the Planet' ()
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
Trump Announces New Cryptocurrency Venture and Plan to Make the U.S. the 'Crypto Capital of the Planet' ()
They actually believe policy has been restricting output/employment and it's now time to begin removing that restriction. Whatever! It's their call!
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
They actually believe policy has been restricting output/employment and it's now time to begin removing that restriction. Whatever! It's their call!
I'm only posting this because it's on the Atlanta Fed's website which means they may be aware of it.
Anyway, it's leveled off recently from a post covid decline:
Anyway, it's leveled off recently from a post covid decline:
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
I'm only posting this because it's on the Atlanta Fed's website which means they may be aware of it.
Anyway, it's leveled off recently from a post covid decline:
Anyway, it's leveled off recently from a post covid decline:
I've still yet to come across a billionaire who understands the monetary system:
Billionaire Peter Thiel warns of looming U.S. recession, blames ‘crazy’ budget deficit ()
Billionaire Peter Thiel warns of looming U.S. recession, blames ‘crazy’ budget deficit ()
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
I've still yet to come across a billionaire who understands the monetary system:
Billionaire Peter Thiel warns of looming U.S. recession, blames ‘crazy’ budget deficit ()
Billionaire Peter Thiel warns of looming U.S. recession, blames ‘crazy’ budget deficit ()
The Fed will be discussing how quickly $ weakness and oil strength would reverse their inflation outlook, and how the unemployment rate is a bit lower than at their July vote, as they don't want to cut rates, particularly in front of the election, and then raise them soon after:
November 17, 2024 at 10:11 PM
The Fed will be discussing how quickly $ weakness and oil strength would reverse their inflation outlook, and how the unemployment rate is a bit lower than at their July vote, as they don't want to cut rates, particularly in front of the election, and then raise them soon after:
Covid price increases were transitory. Goods prices generally returned to pre covid levels. But service prices were/continue to be supported by deficit spending led/sustained by gov interest expense from Fed rate hikes:
November 17, 2024 at 10:02 PM
Covid price increases were transitory. Goods prices generally returned to pre covid levels. But service prices were/continue to be supported by deficit spending led/sustained by gov interest expense from Fed rate hikes:
Fed: Our models say the real fed funds rate is too high= rising unemployment.
Me: The Fed underestimates the fiscal impact of gov interest expense which lowers unemployment. With Fed cuts of .25 or .5 gov interest expense continues to rise/supports GDP/employment/demand/etc.
Me: The Fed underestimates the fiscal impact of gov interest expense which lowers unemployment. With Fed cuts of .25 or .5 gov interest expense continues to rise/supports GDP/employment/demand/etc.
November 17, 2024 at 10:02 PM
Fed: Our models say the real fed funds rate is too high= rising unemployment.
Me: The Fed underestimates the fiscal impact of gov interest expense which lowers unemployment. With Fed cuts of .25 or .5 gov interest expense continues to rise/supports GDP/employment/demand/etc.
Me: The Fed underestimates the fiscal impact of gov interest expense which lowers unemployment. With Fed cuts of .25 or .5 gov interest expense continues to rise/supports GDP/employment/demand/etc.