Fernando Primo Forgioni
@ferforgioni.bsky.social
Climate Scientist. Interested in Climate change and Atmospheric Teleconnections. Former Professor at UNVM 🇦🇷. Currently work on UFSM 🇧🇷
My paper on projected fire danger under future climate change scenarios in South America has been accepted.
Published with @ioppublishing.bsky.social.
Large parts of Latin America will face higher wildfire risk in the coming decades. More soon.
#ClimateScience #WildfireRisk #SouthAmerica
Published with @ioppublishing.bsky.social.
Large parts of Latin America will face higher wildfire risk in the coming decades. More soon.
#ClimateScience #WildfireRisk #SouthAmerica
November 7, 2025 at 3:16 AM
My paper on projected fire danger under future climate change scenarios in South America has been accepted.
Published with @ioppublishing.bsky.social.
Large parts of Latin America will face higher wildfire risk in the coming decades. More soon.
#ClimateScience #WildfireRisk #SouthAmerica
Published with @ioppublishing.bsky.social.
Large parts of Latin America will face higher wildfire risk in the coming decades. More soon.
#ClimateScience #WildfireRisk #SouthAmerica
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
The COP30 is coming up, and a few months ago I made this chart for several countries (including Argentina) based on @berkeleyearth.org data. Like the rest of the planet, for much of the year we were above 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).
November 4, 2025 at 10:13 PM
The COP30 is coming up, and a few months ago I made this chart for several countries (including Argentina) based on @berkeleyearth.org data. Like the rest of the planet, for much of the year we were above 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).
Evaluation of Different Types of Aerosols From Wildfires in South America Using Ground‐Based Observations, Reanalysis and CMIP6 Models - Forgioni - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Evaluation of Different Types of Aerosols From Wildfires in South America Using Ground‐Based Observations, Reanalysis and CMIP6 Models
We evaluate MERRA-2 and CAMS reanalysis products against AERONET observations and compare them with CMIP6 models. CAMS shows better performance in capturing fire-derived aerosols (BC AOD and OC AOD),...
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Evaluation of Different Types of Aerosols From Wildfires in South America Using Ground‐Based Observations, Reanalysis and CMIP6 Models - Forgioni - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
Last month observed a large amount of regional variability in the pattern of temperature anomalies across #Antarctica. These areas matched the location of the difference sea-ice concentration departures pretty closely as well.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
August 22, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Last month observed a large amount of regional variability in the pattern of temperature anomalies across #Antarctica. These areas matched the location of the difference sea-ice concentration departures pretty closely as well.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
I have three papers under review. I hope they all have minor revisions (please God hear my prayers 🙏🏻)
July 30, 2025 at 8:08 PM
I have three papers under review. I hope they all have minor revisions (please God hear my prayers 🙏🏻)
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
“Never have we so hurt and mistreated our common home as we have in the last two hundred years. Reducing greenhouse gases requires honesty, courage and responsibility. Those who will have to suffer the consequences will not forget this failure of conscience and responsibility.” — Pope Francis
April 21, 2025 at 8:48 AM
“Never have we so hurt and mistreated our common home as we have in the last two hundred years. Reducing greenhouse gases requires honesty, courage and responsibility. Those who will have to suffer the consequences will not forget this failure of conscience and responsibility.” — Pope Francis
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
Rapid population growth, poverty and frequent bouts of extreme rainfall are increasing the risk of catastrophic flooding in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s capital city of nearly 18 million people.
Our study on the recent floods that killed at least 33 people was published today.
🧵
Our study on the recent floods that killed at least 33 people was published today.
🧵
April 17, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Rapid population growth, poverty and frequent bouts of extreme rainfall are increasing the risk of catastrophic flooding in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s capital city of nearly 18 million people.
Our study on the recent floods that killed at least 33 people was published today.
🧵
Our study on the recent floods that killed at least 33 people was published today.
🧵
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
Extraordinary announcement behind cutting funding to one of the world's leading climate institutes, GFDL. Apparently it's (amongst other reasons) because climate modelling is leading to climate anxiety and therefore should be stopped. www.commerce.gov/news/press-r...
Ending Cooperative Agreements’ Funding to Princeton University
On Tuesday, April 8, 2025, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick announced that nearly $4 million in funding is ending to Princeton University after a detailed, careful, and thorough review of the...
www.commerce.gov
April 9, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Extraordinary announcement behind cutting funding to one of the world's leading climate institutes, GFDL. Apparently it's (amongst other reasons) because climate modelling is leading to climate anxiety and therefore should be stopped. www.commerce.gov/news/press-r...
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
Temperature anomalies over the last month (left), 3 months (center), and 12 months (right) in the Southern Hemisphere...
Data from doi.org/10.24381/cds...
Data from doi.org/10.24381/cds...
March 25, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Temperature anomalies over the last month (left), 3 months (center), and 12 months (right) in the Southern Hemisphere...
Data from doi.org/10.24381/cds...
Data from doi.org/10.24381/cds...
I take this idea from @neilrkaye.bsky.social (all credits go to him, i just adapt it). Using ERA5 data, the anomalies from 1940 to 2024 are shown for Brazil and Argentina. While the signal is not as robust as the global average, the influence of climate change on temperatures is evident.
March 21, 2025 at 6:51 AM
I take this idea from @neilrkaye.bsky.social (all credits go to him, i just adapt it). Using ERA5 data, the anomalies from 1940 to 2024 are shown for Brazil and Argentina. While the signal is not as robust as the global average, the influence of climate change on temperatures is evident.
Our new paper 🥳 was released today, on how various satellite products represent extreme precipitation events in southeastern South America. The full paper can be read at: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
(The paper is open access in RG)
He left some points:
(The paper is open access in RG)
He left some points:
Can Satellite Products Recognise Extreme Precipitation Over Southeastern South America?
The study analyses the capability of satellite products IMERG Final Run V06, PERSIANN, PERSIANN CCS-CDR and PDIR-NOW in capturing extreme precipitation characteristics over SESA in the 2001–2020 peri...
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
January 3, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Our new paper 🥳 was released today, on how various satellite products represent extreme precipitation events in southeastern South America. The full paper can be read at: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
(The paper is open access in RG)
He left some points:
(The paper is open access in RG)
He left some points:
Line of instability associated with the passage of a cold front, reaching the border of Uruguay and Brazil. Causing severe storms. This record was near 21:00 UTC
December 2, 2024 at 3:22 AM
Line of instability associated with the passage of a cold front, reaching the border of Uruguay and Brazil. Causing severe storms. This record was near 21:00 UTC
It is amazing that most works on future projections of climate change or compound events only uses the most pessimistic emissions scenario. It is good to have “good” results, but it is limiting the view of the future too much
Me as a reviewer…
Me as a reviewer…
December 1, 2024 at 1:49 AM
It is amazing that most works on future projections of climate change or compound events only uses the most pessimistic emissions scenario. It is good to have “good” results, but it is limiting the view of the future too much
Me as a reviewer…
Me as a reviewer…
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
Yes, I realize that my usual temperature anomaly scale is less than ideal for visualization purposes in this image here. But that's also because the #Arctic was absurdly warm compared to the 1981-2010 climatological average in October 2024.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
November 26, 2024 at 12:47 AM
Yes, I realize that my usual temperature anomaly scale is less than ideal for visualization purposes in this image here. But that's also because the #Arctic was absurdly warm compared to the 1981-2010 climatological average in October 2024.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
Last month observed temperature anomalies in excess of 8°C above the 1981-2010 climatological reference period across the Canadian #Arctic Archipelago. Remarkably warm.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
November 17, 2024 at 1:34 PM
Last month observed temperature anomalies in excess of 8°C above the 1981-2010 climatological reference period across the Canadian #Arctic Archipelago. Remarkably warm.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
Data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis.
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
#Arctic sea ice volume was 54% below the average in this data set for October 2024. The animation shows changes in both sea ice volume (bar) and sea ice thickness (map) in October
+ Graphic available: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
+ Data from: psc.apl.uw.edu/research/pro...
+ Graphic available: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
+ Data from: psc.apl.uw.edu/research/pro...
November 16, 2024 at 3:00 PM
#Arctic sea ice volume was 54% below the average in this data set for October 2024. The animation shows changes in both sea ice volume (bar) and sea ice thickness (map) in October
+ Graphic available: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
+ Data from: psc.apl.uw.edu/research/pro...
+ Graphic available: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
+ Data from: psc.apl.uw.edu/research/pro...
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
Time for the @bsky.app community to see one of my favorite visualizations of climate change...
"Shifting Distribution of Land Temperature Anomalies" by svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5211/ ⚒️🧪
"Shifting Distribution of Land Temperature Anomalies" by svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5211/ ⚒️🧪
November 14, 2024 at 12:59 AM
Time for the @bsky.app community to see one of my favorite visualizations of climate change...
"Shifting Distribution of Land Temperature Anomalies" by svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5211/ ⚒️🧪
"Shifting Distribution of Land Temperature Anomalies" by svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5211/ ⚒️🧪
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
October #Temperature highlights from the #CopernicusClimate Change Service (#C3S).
Last month
🌡 was the 2nd-warmest October globally, after '23, 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 average
🌡 1.65°C above the pre-industrial level
For more 👉 climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
November 7, 2024 at 8:17 AM
October #Temperature highlights from the #CopernicusClimate Change Service (#C3S).
Last month
🌡 was the 2nd-warmest October globally, after '23, 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 average
🌡 1.65°C above the pre-industrial level
For more 👉 climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-...
Thank you YESS community for this invitation. These spaces for conversation are necessary in view of the next COP29. So that we understand where the discussions are going and how we can take part in them. Demanding stronger and more real commitments.
November 1, 2024 at 7:25 PM
Thank you YESS community for this invitation. These spaces for conversation are necessary in view of the next COP29. So that we understand where the discussions are going and how we can take part in them. Demanding stronger and more real commitments.
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
A summary of our new study from our NOAA rapid attribution team: news.ncsu.edu/2024/10/when...
When is a Heat Wave Just a Heat Wave, and When is it Climate Change?
A 2023 heat wave helped establish processes that tease out whether particular weather events are climate related.
news.ncsu.edu
October 28, 2024 at 10:59 PM
A summary of our new study from our NOAA rapid attribution team: news.ncsu.edu/2024/10/when...
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
46 years of #Arctic sea ice thickness during the month of September...
Graphic available at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
Graphic available at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
October 27, 2024 at 1:37 PM
46 years of #Arctic sea ice thickness during the month of September...
Graphic available at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
Graphic available at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
#CopernicusAtmosphere aerosol optical depth analyses ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam... since 1 October 2024 show widespread smoke pollution from fires across South America gradually easing as the season comes to an end through the second half of the month @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social 🌊🧪
October 24, 2024 at 11:57 AM
#CopernicusAtmosphere aerosol optical depth analyses ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam... since 1 October 2024 show widespread smoke pollution from fires across South America gradually easing as the season comes to an end through the second half of the month @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social 🌊🧪
Reposted by Fernando Primo Forgioni
Canadian wildfires in 2024 have again been extreme, resulting in the second highest annual total emissions (after 2023) in the 22 years of our #CopernicusAtmosphere Global Fire Assimilation System dataset.
All insights:
www.ecmwf.int/en/newslette...
All insights:
www.ecmwf.int/en/newslette...
October 22, 2024 at 10:42 AM
Canadian wildfires in 2024 have again been extreme, resulting in the second highest annual total emissions (after 2023) in the 22 years of our #CopernicusAtmosphere Global Fire Assimilation System dataset.
All insights:
www.ecmwf.int/en/newslette...
All insights:
www.ecmwf.int/en/newslette...
Tomorrow we will have our workshop on wildfires ocurrence and the main circulation mechanisms associated with aerosol transport over long distances. This project brought us important cooperation between France, Argentina, Brazil and Peru.
I am very excited to share these results.
I am very excited to share these results.
October 22, 2024 at 12:25 AM
Tomorrow we will have our workshop on wildfires ocurrence and the main circulation mechanisms associated with aerosol transport over long distances. This project brought us important cooperation between France, Argentina, Brazil and Peru.
I am very excited to share these results.
I am very excited to share these results.