Eurasianology
@eurasianology.bsky.social
Causes, Effects and What Comes Next for the Political Economy of Eurasia
https://eurasianology.substack.com/
https://eurasianology.substack.com/
^RUSSIA OIL PRODUCT EXPORTS FROM BLACK SEA PORT OF TUAPSE PLANNED AT 1.123 MLN T IN DEC VS 0.895 MLN T SCHEDULED FOR NOV
Key words here are "planned" and "scheduled"
Baby Sea Drones say that won't happen
Key words here are "planned" and "scheduled"
Baby Sea Drones say that won't happen
December 2, 2025 at 2:25 PM
^RUSSIA OIL PRODUCT EXPORTS FROM BLACK SEA PORT OF TUAPSE PLANNED AT 1.123 MLN T IN DEC VS 0.895 MLN T SCHEDULED FOR NOV
Key words here are "planned" and "scheduled"
Baby Sea Drones say that won't happen
Key words here are "planned" and "scheduled"
Baby Sea Drones say that won't happen
**SOURCES: RUSSIA MULLS HOW TO PROP UP RUSSIAN RAILWAYS WHICH IS $51 BILLION IN DEBT
FYI: ~RUB4.0Trln of debt comprises ~30% of Russia's entire 2025 official military budget
FYI x 2: Trump may bail Putin out *just* before RZhD, Russian Post, VTB, Sber start to tip over
FYI: ~RUB4.0Trln of debt comprises ~30% of Russia's entire 2025 official military budget
FYI x 2: Trump may bail Putin out *just* before RZhD, Russian Post, VTB, Sber start to tip over
November 25, 2025 at 12:44 PM
**SOURCES: RUSSIA MULLS HOW TO PROP UP RUSSIAN RAILWAYS WHICH IS $51 BILLION IN DEBT
FYI: ~RUB4.0Trln of debt comprises ~30% of Russia's entire 2025 official military budget
FYI x 2: Trump may bail Putin out *just* before RZhD, Russian Post, VTB, Sber start to tip over
FYI: ~RUB4.0Trln of debt comprises ~30% of Russia's entire 2025 official military budget
FYI x 2: Trump may bail Putin out *just* before RZhD, Russian Post, VTB, Sber start to tip over
@mijrahman.bsky.social et al-> Witkoff 28pt plan is DOA, never had a chance: Witkoff was sidelined after Gaza plan, so he is rehashing old ideas to be relevant. It's terrible for Ukraine, but isn't extreme enough for Russia's goals anyways. Good timing for Trump's planned exit from UKR peace effort.
November 20, 2025 at 5:27 PM
@mijrahman.bsky.social et al-> Witkoff 28pt plan is DOA, never had a chance: Witkoff was sidelined after Gaza plan, so he is rehashing old ideas to be relevant. It's terrible for Ukraine, but isn't extreme enough for Russia's goals anyways. Good timing for Trump's planned exit from UKR peace effort.
"(RU) Russia Finance Ministry: Increasing Q4 OFZ (RUB bond) borrowing to RUB3.8T (from RUB1.5T on Sept 29th)"
153% increase in just seven weeks?!
153% increase in just seven weeks?!
November 12, 2025 at 5:48 PM
"(RU) Russia Finance Ministry: Increasing Q4 OFZ (RUB bond) borrowing to RUB3.8T (from RUB1.5T on Sept 29th)"
153% increase in just seven weeks?!
153% increase in just seven weeks?!
@rprose.bsky.social @sstapczynski.bsky.social -> Powell was Dynasty-era Belichick at FOMC Q&A last week:
-No to comment on Lisa Cook case
-Nothing more to add on future at Fed after May '26
-Possible that tariffs are impacting labor market
-Markets pricing in rates path, we're not blessing that path
-No to comment on Lisa Cook case
-Nothing more to add on future at Fed after May '26
-Possible that tariffs are impacting labor market
-Markets pricing in rates path, we're not blessing that path
September 19, 2025 at 6:50 PM
@rprose.bsky.social @sstapczynski.bsky.social -> Powell was Dynasty-era Belichick at FOMC Q&A last week:
-No to comment on Lisa Cook case
-Nothing more to add on future at Fed after May '26
-Possible that tariffs are impacting labor market
-Markets pricing in rates path, we're not blessing that path
-No to comment on Lisa Cook case
-Nothing more to add on future at Fed after May '26
-Possible that tariffs are impacting labor market
-Markets pricing in rates path, we're not blessing that path
*RTRS: "Georgian holding company Silk Road Group made its debut on intl bond market on Mon... telecom company Silknet, which itself is a familiar name to bond investors, landed a $400M five-year non-call two issue at 7.5% -- 50bp inside initial price thoughts."
Nice Caucasian USD-bond sale for CEEMA
Nice Caucasian USD-bond sale for CEEMA
September 10, 2025 at 4:18 PM
*RTRS: "Georgian holding company Silk Road Group made its debut on intl bond market on Mon... telecom company Silknet, which itself is a familiar name to bond investors, landed a $400M five-year non-call two issue at 7.5% -- 50bp inside initial price thoughts."
Nice Caucasian USD-bond sale for CEEMA
Nice Caucasian USD-bond sale for CEEMA
*RUSSIA CENBANK SETS OFFICIAL USD/RUB RATE FOR SEPT 11 AT 84.9211
vs
*RUSSIA CENBANK SETS OFFICIAL USD/RUB RATE FOR JULY 11 AT 77.9029
That's 8.6% weaker in just 60 days -- and remember that this is the FAKE govt-set RUB rate, the implied value of the RUB is much weaker
vs
*RUSSIA CENBANK SETS OFFICIAL USD/RUB RATE FOR JULY 11 AT 77.9029
That's 8.6% weaker in just 60 days -- and remember that this is the FAKE govt-set RUB rate, the implied value of the RUB is much weaker
September 10, 2025 at 2:36 PM
*RUSSIA CENBANK SETS OFFICIAL USD/RUB RATE FOR SEPT 11 AT 84.9211
vs
*RUSSIA CENBANK SETS OFFICIAL USD/RUB RATE FOR JULY 11 AT 77.9029
That's 8.6% weaker in just 60 days -- and remember that this is the FAKE govt-set RUB rate, the implied value of the RUB is much weaker
vs
*RUSSIA CENBANK SETS OFFICIAL USD/RUB RATE FOR JULY 11 AT 77.9029
That's 8.6% weaker in just 60 days -- and remember that this is the FAKE govt-set RUB rate, the implied value of the RUB is much weaker
@rprose.bsky.social Nice Uzbek online retail tuck-in deal here: TBCB.UK Acquires majority stake in Prosus online classifieds platform OLX UZ; Terms not disclosed
- OLX UZ has 5.4M MAUs, 2.2M active listings, marketplace in services, goods, vehicles, real estate; Serving >20% of UZB internet users.
- OLX UZ has 5.4M MAUs, 2.2M active listings, marketplace in services, goods, vehicles, real estate; Serving >20% of UZB internet users.
August 21, 2025 at 2:41 PM
@rprose.bsky.social Nice Uzbek online retail tuck-in deal here: TBCB.UK Acquires majority stake in Prosus online classifieds platform OLX UZ; Terms not disclosed
- OLX UZ has 5.4M MAUs, 2.2M active listings, marketplace in services, goods, vehicles, real estate; Serving >20% of UZB internet users.
- OLX UZ has 5.4M MAUs, 2.2M active listings, marketplace in services, goods, vehicles, real estate; Serving >20% of UZB internet users.
Trump team is acting exactly like Yanukovych did in late 2013. Making false overtures like they want European progress for Ukraine whilst also planning behind the scenes to pull support at the last minute once again. Trump is giving clues by repeatedly qualifying US support (no boots on ground, etc)
August 20, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Trump team is acting exactly like Yanukovych did in late 2013. Making false overtures like they want European progress for Ukraine whilst also planning behind the scenes to pull support at the last minute once again. Trump is giving clues by repeatedly qualifying US support (no boots on ground, etc)
@rprose.bsky.social @sstapczynski.bsky.social
*ANDURAND HEDGE FUND'S YTD LOSSES WORSEN TO 60%
This guy is more allergic to making money in the oil market than M. Dudmore is to making correct calls in EM FX and crypto markets
*ANDURAND HEDGE FUND'S YTD LOSSES WORSEN TO 60%
This guy is more allergic to making money in the oil market than M. Dudmore is to making correct calls in EM FX and crypto markets
June 25, 2025 at 6:14 PM
@rprose.bsky.social @sstapczynski.bsky.social
*ANDURAND HEDGE FUND'S YTD LOSSES WORSEN TO 60%
This guy is more allergic to making money in the oil market than M. Dudmore is to making correct calls in EM FX and crypto markets
*ANDURAND HEDGE FUND'S YTD LOSSES WORSEN TO 60%
This guy is more allergic to making money in the oil market than M. Dudmore is to making correct calls in EM FX and crypto markets
@rprose.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social It's logical that Mike Waltz has to go, not due to Signalgate, but as a military mind with a healthy skepticism of the Putin's true ambitions. Replacing Waltz with Putin cheerleader Steve Witkoff will make ignoring the empty minerals deal ever more swift.
May 1, 2025 at 7:14 PM
@rprose.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social It's logical that Mike Waltz has to go, not due to Signalgate, but as a military mind with a healthy skepticism of the Putin's true ambitions. Replacing Waltz with Putin cheerleader Steve Witkoff will make ignoring the empty minerals deal ever more swift.
@sstapczynski.bsky.social -> This is risky business by Japan, signing a Qatar deal in the middle of trade talks with the US, especially when LNG is one of the few things the US exports (besides "guns & grains")
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Exclusive: QatarEnergy in talks with Japan on long-term LNG supply deal
One of the world's biggest liquefied natural gas suppliers, QatarEnergy [RIC:RIC:QATPE.UL], is in talks with Japanese firms for a long-term deal to supply LNG from its North Field expansion project, five trading and industry sources told Reuters.
www.reuters.com
May 1, 2025 at 6:56 PM
@sstapczynski.bsky.social -> This is risky business by Japan, signing a Qatar deal in the middle of trade talks with the US, especially when LNG is one of the few things the US exports (besides "guns & grains")
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
Simple reminder that the Black Sea is meaningless for RUS potash exports. Westbound exports float via Piter and Ust Luga; eastbound exports go by rail to China. Black Sea security to RUS means exporting stolen UKR grain and keeping its own naval fleet from being sunk. US giving up too much to RUS.
March 25, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Simple reminder that the Black Sea is meaningless for RUS potash exports. Westbound exports float via Piter and Ust Luga; eastbound exports go by rail to China. Black Sea security to RUS means exporting stolen UKR grain and keeping its own naval fleet from being sunk. US giving up too much to RUS.
RUS language media is pushing the myth that RUS banks will soon be reconnected to SWIFT due to the US rewarding a ceasefire. Lack of intl payments are one reason younger Russians are still remaining outside Russia. Единороссы may be lying about sanctions relief to lure those people back to Russia.
March 25, 2025 at 9:18 PM
RUS language media is pushing the myth that RUS banks will soon be reconnected to SWIFT due to the US rewarding a ceasefire. Lack of intl payments are one reason younger Russians are still remaining outside Russia. Единороссы may be lying about sanctions relief to lure those people back to Russia.
@bodner.bsky.social @rprose.bsky.social Recall that UKR has neutralized the RUS navy in the Black Sea. Note that it's spring, so RUS attacks on UKR power grid have less of an effect vs winter. Note that UKR drone hits are doing well on RUS oil fixtures. Maybe these ceasefire points just to help RUS
March 25, 2025 at 9:13 PM
@bodner.bsky.social @rprose.bsky.social Recall that UKR has neutralized the RUS navy in the Black Sea. Note that it's spring, so RUS attacks on UKR power grid have less of an effect vs winter. Note that UKR drone hits are doing well on RUS oil fixtures. Maybe these ceasefire points just to help RUS
@mijrahman.bsky.social @rprose.bsky.social Maybe Erdoğan would gain more sympathy if he had İmamoğlu killed in prison and then bombed Greek civilians and kidnapped Greek children? Would Erdoğan then be "holding all the cards" and have a "stronger negotiating position?"
March 20, 2025 at 7:05 AM
@mijrahman.bsky.social @rprose.bsky.social Maybe Erdoğan would gain more sympathy if he had İmamoğlu killed in prison and then bombed Greek civilians and kidnapped Greek children? Would Erdoğan then be "holding all the cards" and have a "stronger negotiating position?"
@rprose.bsky.social -> No one was interested in RUS assets 2014-22, but now they'll come back to the same old Единоросс kleptocracy, to a vastly damaged Russian macro landscape, solely based on hopium.
Investors seek to profit from Russia as Trump pursues rapprochement - on.ft.com/4bC3nH2 via @FT
Investors seek to profit from Russia as Trump pursues rapprochement - on.ft.com/4bC3nH2 via @FT
Investors seek to profit from Russia as Trump pursues rapprochement
Hedge funds and brokers eye the country’s corporate bonds and the rouble
on.ft.com
March 17, 2025 at 7:51 AM
@rprose.bsky.social -> No one was interested in RUS assets 2014-22, but now they'll come back to the same old Единоросс kleptocracy, to a vastly damaged Russian macro landscape, solely based on hopium.
Investors seek to profit from Russia as Trump pursues rapprochement - on.ft.com/4bC3nH2 via @FT
Investors seek to profit from Russia as Trump pursues rapprochement - on.ft.com/4bC3nH2 via @FT
Russian inflation up, whilst industrial production turns down. We saw this once in the spring of 2024, but it didn't look as *stagflationary* as the current divergence. Ruble in trouble? Nabiullina on the ropes? (Reminder: never trust RosStat/РОССТАТ numbers)
February 26, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Russian inflation up, whilst industrial production turns down. We saw this once in the spring of 2024, but it didn't look as *stagflationary* as the current divergence. Ruble in trouble? Nabiullina on the ropes? (Reminder: never trust RosStat/РОССТАТ numbers)
@rprose.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social @michaelkofman.bsky.social
Trump committing a disproportionate amount of time and effort to the Ukraine war issue—which isn't important to US voters or his base at all—means that something nefarious is clearly afoot with Putin's blessing. We all can agree?
Trump committing a disproportionate amount of time and effort to the Ukraine war issue—which isn't important to US voters or his base at all—means that something nefarious is clearly afoot with Putin's blessing. We all can agree?
February 26, 2025 at 7:26 PM
@rprose.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social @michaelkofman.bsky.social
Trump committing a disproportionate amount of time and effort to the Ukraine war issue—which isn't important to US voters or his base at all—means that something nefarious is clearly afoot with Putin's blessing. We all can agree?
Trump committing a disproportionate amount of time and effort to the Ukraine war issue—which isn't important to US voters or his base at all—means that something nefarious is clearly afoot with Putin's blessing. We all can agree?
@tomaburque.bsky.social --> Jill Dougherty isn't a real Russia expert, just a bag-chasing CNN potatohead who left Moscow for Beijing in the early 2000s when there was a better offer. Hasn't done Russia work in 20 years until the Ukraine attack and CNN needed someone with underinformed cold takes.
February 17, 2025 at 11:18 AM
@tomaburque.bsky.social --> Jill Dougherty isn't a real Russia expert, just a bag-chasing CNN potatohead who left Moscow for Beijing in the early 2000s when there was a better offer. Hasn't done Russia work in 20 years until the Ukraine attack and CNN needed someone with underinformed cold takes.
@jeannexsmialek.bsky.social - I thought that was very kind of Jerry Powell & Co to give you the first question of the final Fed presser of 2024 before you went off to start a European assignment. Major, if veiled, nod to NYT and old guard before the new corps comes in to ask about de-banking myths.
February 17, 2025 at 11:12 AM
@jeannexsmialek.bsky.social - I thought that was very kind of Jerry Powell & Co to give you the first question of the final Fed presser of 2024 before you went off to start a European assignment. Major, if veiled, nod to NYT and old guard before the new corps comes in to ask about de-banking myths.
@geoecon.bsky.social
@mijrahman.bsky.social
@rprose.bsky.social
Vital Knowledge's Crisafulli: "Washington seems benign now, but risks will build around the Mar/Apr timeframe when tariff, debt ceiling, and reconciliation dates all coincide"
MAGA Reps voting for debt to fund tax cuts? Hilarity ensues
@mijrahman.bsky.social
@rprose.bsky.social
Vital Knowledge's Crisafulli: "Washington seems benign now, but risks will build around the Mar/Apr timeframe when tariff, debt ceiling, and reconciliation dates all coincide"
MAGA Reps voting for debt to fund tax cuts? Hilarity ensues
January 31, 2025 at 8:54 PM
@geoecon.bsky.social
@mijrahman.bsky.social
@rprose.bsky.social
Vital Knowledge's Crisafulli: "Washington seems benign now, but risks will build around the Mar/Apr timeframe when tariff, debt ceiling, and reconciliation dates all coincide"
MAGA Reps voting for debt to fund tax cuts? Hilarity ensues
@mijrahman.bsky.social
@rprose.bsky.social
Vital Knowledge's Crisafulli: "Washington seems benign now, but risks will build around the Mar/Apr timeframe when tariff, debt ceiling, and reconciliation dates all coincide"
MAGA Reps voting for debt to fund tax cuts? Hilarity ensues
@sstapczynski.bsky.social @rprose.bsky.social --> Russia only gets a weak mention in the PR for S&P's new global LNG report:
"If future U.S. capacity were not to materialize, other countries would seek to fill the gap... Other countries, including Russia, would likely add capacity as well."
"If future U.S. capacity were not to materialize, other countries would seek to fill the gap... Other countries, including Russia, would likely add capacity as well."
December 19, 2024 at 11:38 PM
@sstapczynski.bsky.social @rprose.bsky.social --> Russia only gets a weak mention in the PR for S&P's new global LNG report:
"If future U.S. capacity were not to materialize, other countries would seek to fill the gap... Other countries, including Russia, would likely add capacity as well."
"If future U.S. capacity were not to materialize, other countries would seek to fill the gap... Other countries, including Russia, would likely add capacity as well."
The Russian Central Bank should hike rates to 26% or 27% to end the year, but they'll play it cool, save some room to hike for when things are *way worse* in 2025. Enjoy the show.
open.substack.com/pub/eurasian...?
open.substack.com/pub/eurasian...?
Nabiullina & Co. May Seem Aggressive in Hiking Rates – But They’re Saving Ammo for the 2025 Inflation Bomb, Ruble Collapse and Bank Run
23 Percent Key Rate by End-2024 Is Mere Prologue to More 2025 Hikes That Will Serve to Match the Jawboning and Guidance of Late 2024 as the CBR Tries to Flatten Inflation Expectations
open.substack.com
December 19, 2024 at 11:16 PM
The Russian Central Bank should hike rates to 26% or 27% to end the year, but they'll play it cool, save some room to hike for when things are *way worse* in 2025. Enjoy the show.
open.substack.com/pub/eurasian...?
open.substack.com/pub/eurasian...?
Russian Central Bank needs to just hold a press conference and admit that there's no hope for bringing down inflation, no hope for cheaper borrowing rates, and it's time to just cause a bank run and RUB collapse to at least get a new government that will end the war.
Even a Russian Central Bank Hike to 20% Today Looks Too Little, Too Late
The Russia macroeconomic 'braintroika' of Putin, Nabiullina and Siluanov are trying hard to make hyperinflation more of a risk than Ukrainian drones
eurasianology.substack.com
September 13, 2024 at 9:16 AM
Russian Central Bank needs to just hold a press conference and admit that there's no hope for bringing down inflation, no hope for cheaper borrowing rates, and it's time to just cause a bank run and RUB collapse to at least get a new government that will end the war.