@backcast.bsky.social
Geo-politics | technology | strategy | intelligence
Reposted
The idea that cable-cutting in the Baltic has stopped because of Baltic Sentry and not for any other reason, and thus that “deterrence is working”, is a logical leap that I sincerely hope is supported by some evidence.
www.ft.com/content/dbd9...
www.ft.com/content/dbd9...
November 30, 2025 at 10:00 PM
The idea that cable-cutting in the Baltic has stopped because of Baltic Sentry and not for any other reason, and thus that “deterrence is working”, is a logical leap that I sincerely hope is supported by some evidence.
www.ft.com/content/dbd9...
www.ft.com/content/dbd9...
Reposted
Increased deportations and unequal and growingly restrictive visa policies in the United States are jeopardizing the trust built by decades of hosting Pacific Islanders – while China moves in the opposite direction.
Trump’s Deportations Threaten the US Relationship With the Pacific, and China Seeks to Capitalize
Increased deportations and unequal and growingly restrictive visa policies are jeopardizing the trust built by decades of hosting Pacific Islanders – while China moves in the opposite direction.
buff.ly
November 29, 2025 at 4:31 AM
Increased deportations and unequal and growingly restrictive visa policies in the United States are jeopardizing the trust built by decades of hosting Pacific Islanders – while China moves in the opposite direction.
Reposted
I joined @cwarzel.bsky.social on the Galaxy Brain Podcast to explain some of the reasons why America, and a lot of other Western democracies, are sliding into authoritarianism and why it's probably inevitable
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvFh...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvFh...
America’s Slide Toward Simulated Democracy with Eliot Higgins
YouTube video by The Atlantic
www.youtube.com
November 28, 2025 at 4:30 PM
I joined @cwarzel.bsky.social on the Galaxy Brain Podcast to explain some of the reasons why America, and a lot of other Western democracies, are sliding into authoritarianism and why it's probably inevitable
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvFh...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvFh...
Reposted
“A European intelligence agency distributed a hard-copy report in a manila envelope to some of the continent’s most senior national security officials...inside were details of the commercial and economic plans the US had been pursuing with Russia, including jointly mining rare earths in the Arctic.”
November 29, 2025 at 6:01 AM
“A European intelligence agency distributed a hard-copy report in a manila envelope to some of the continent’s most senior national security officials...inside were details of the commercial and economic plans the US had been pursuing with Russia, including jointly mining rare earths in the Arctic.”
Reposted
No, Mr. Bart DeWever, this is nothing but a Russian narrative.
What deal are you talking about? The Russian plan that amounts to Ukraine's capitulation and will herald a full-scale war on Europe?
Did you forget the hundreds of thousands murdered by Russia?
#MakeRussiaPay
www.ft.com/content/320b...
What deal are you talking about? The Russian plan that amounts to Ukraine's capitulation and will herald a full-scale war on Europe?
Did you forget the hundreds of thousands murdered by Russia?
#MakeRussiaPay
www.ft.com/content/320b...
Belgium says using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine will endanger a peace deal
Prime Minister Bart De Wever sets out conditions that would resolve his objections to a proposed €140bn EU loan to Kyiv
www.ft.com
November 28, 2025 at 9:14 PM
No, Mr. Bart DeWever, this is nothing but a Russian narrative.
What deal are you talking about? The Russian plan that amounts to Ukraine's capitulation and will herald a full-scale war on Europe?
Did you forget the hundreds of thousands murdered by Russia?
#MakeRussiaPay
www.ft.com/content/320b...
What deal are you talking about? The Russian plan that amounts to Ukraine's capitulation and will herald a full-scale war on Europe?
Did you forget the hundreds of thousands murdered by Russia?
#MakeRussiaPay
www.ft.com/content/320b...
Reposted
“Once the claws are in you through social media—it starts dragging down the whole democracy with it.”
The journalist Eliot Higgins speaks with Charlie Warzel about how algorithmic incentives can affect how people make political decisions. Listen to the episode: theatln.tc/y9MnNOkb
The journalist Eliot Higgins speaks with Charlie Warzel about how algorithmic incentives can affect how people make political decisions. Listen to the episode: theatln.tc/y9MnNOkb
November 28, 2025 at 10:00 PM
“Once the claws are in you through social media—it starts dragging down the whole democracy with it.”
The journalist Eliot Higgins speaks with Charlie Warzel about how algorithmic incentives can affect how people make political decisions. Listen to the episode: theatln.tc/y9MnNOkb
The journalist Eliot Higgins speaks with Charlie Warzel about how algorithmic incentives can affect how people make political decisions. Listen to the episode: theatln.tc/y9MnNOkb
Reposted
🔴Michael Gove Made Orwell Prize Judge Despite Record of Attacking Journalists and Dodging Scrutiny
“Orwell would have enjoyed the irony” of the former Conservative minister’s appointment, say critics
bylinetimes.com/2025/11/25/m...
“Orwell would have enjoyed the irony” of the former Conservative minister’s appointment, say critics
bylinetimes.com/2025/11/25/m...
Michael Gove Made Orwell Prize Judge Despite Record of Attacking Journalists and Dodging Scrutiny
Critics say "Orwell would have enjoyed the irony" of the former Conservative minister's appointment
bylinetimes.com
November 28, 2025 at 2:25 PM
🔴Michael Gove Made Orwell Prize Judge Despite Record of Attacking Journalists and Dodging Scrutiny
“Orwell would have enjoyed the irony” of the former Conservative minister’s appointment, say critics
bylinetimes.com/2025/11/25/m...
“Orwell would have enjoyed the irony” of the former Conservative minister’s appointment, say critics
bylinetimes.com/2025/11/25/m...
Reposted
Trump continues to get manipulated and played by Putin.
The war will end when the Ukrainian army withdraws from Ukraine.
Putin told reporters that the fighting will end when Ukrainian forces withdraw from the territories they currently hold.
November 28, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Trump continues to get manipulated and played by Putin.
Reposted
If the United States is serious about besting China, then “it needs to invest in its manufacturing capacity, spend on its people, shore up its partnerships, and reinvest in its values,” writes @congressmanraja.bsky.social.
What Trump Gets Wrong About China
Only a long-term strategy can counter the threat from Beijing.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 28, 2025 at 3:22 PM
If the United States is serious about besting China, then “it needs to invest in its manufacturing capacity, spend on its people, shore up its partnerships, and reinvest in its values,” writes @congressmanraja.bsky.social.
Reposted
Here's UKIP's former Scottish leader David Coburn, who has denied taking Russian bribes after being named in Whatsapp messages between Nathan Gill and a pawn of the Putin administration, being applauded by Gill for arguing against Ukraine's entry to the EU
November 28, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Here's UKIP's former Scottish leader David Coburn, who has denied taking Russian bribes after being named in Whatsapp messages between Nathan Gill and a pawn of the Putin administration, being applauded by Gill for arguing against Ukraine's entry to the EU
Reposted
🚨 BREAKING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top adviser Andriy Yermak has quit amid a snowballing graft probe.
Read the full story: politi.co/48rLU2L
Read the full story: politi.co/48rLU2L
November 28, 2025 at 3:48 PM
🚨 BREAKING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top adviser Andriy Yermak has quit amid a snowballing graft probe.
Read the full story: politi.co/48rLU2L
Read the full story: politi.co/48rLU2L
Reposted
All the people I know in politics are smart, well-educated and intellectual, they just don't actually have time to think about big ideas or underlying concepts - even during summer recess etc. We can create a system that makes for better MPs (staff etc), but it'll cost money we don't want to spend.
I don’t think this is a “politicians have got dumber” issue for the most part. If you look at the *actual CVs* of previous cohorts of MPs, their background is not radically different when you account for, you know, the fact the economy is different! It is primarily a media and ecosystem issue.
We have got to make politics intellectual again. It is the only way that societies thrive is when politicians have the capability to actually think and reflect deeply:
November 28, 2025 at 3:38 PM
All the people I know in politics are smart, well-educated and intellectual, they just don't actually have time to think about big ideas or underlying concepts - even during summer recess etc. We can create a system that makes for better MPs (staff etc), but it'll cost money we don't want to spend.
Reposted
"Labour has managed to squander its capital with immense speed, it's more than a little shocking."
Salman Rushdie says a reluctance to acknowledge the damage Brexit has done and is harming people's faith in politics.
@jonsopel1.bsky.social | @lewisgoodall.com
Salman Rushdie says a reluctance to acknowledge the damage Brexit has done and is harming people's faith in politics.
@jonsopel1.bsky.social | @lewisgoodall.com
November 28, 2025 at 4:22 PM
"Labour has managed to squander its capital with immense speed, it's more than a little shocking."
Salman Rushdie says a reluctance to acknowledge the damage Brexit has done and is harming people's faith in politics.
@jonsopel1.bsky.social | @lewisgoodall.com
Salman Rushdie says a reluctance to acknowledge the damage Brexit has done and is harming people's faith in politics.
@jonsopel1.bsky.social | @lewisgoodall.com
Reposted
One of the clearest, logical thinkers and strategic communicators on why Russia must not win - and why Ukraine needs more support, not more pressure to sign a deal that favours Russia.
We still need to get from a situation where Russia pretends to negotiate to a situation where they need to negotiate.
Extract from my press remarks following today’s informal Foreign Affairs Council ↓
Extract from my press remarks following today’s informal Foreign Affairs Council ↓
November 26, 2025 at 8:55 PM
One of the clearest, logical thinkers and strategic communicators on why Russia must not win - and why Ukraine needs more support, not more pressure to sign a deal that favours Russia.
Reposted
A great article in @foreignaffairs.com about the "toothless" Trump sanctions on Russian oil, that people have been getting wrong. China is still buying lots of oil, and without secondary sanctions, this will protect Moscow
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
America’s Toothless Sanctions on Russian Oil
Last month, the Trump administration imposed fresh sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, signaling a renewed desire to drive Moscow to the negotiating table in its war a...
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 26, 2025 at 2:02 AM
A great article in @foreignaffairs.com about the "toothless" Trump sanctions on Russian oil, that people have been getting wrong. China is still buying lots of oil, and without secondary sanctions, this will protect Moscow
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Reposted
Trump’s pursuit of Senator Mark Kelly extends the president’s retribution campaign to the military justice system, Missy Ryan, Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, and Nancy A. Youssef report.
“We basically said, ‘Follow the law.’ And he said, ‘Kill them,’” Kelly tells them:
“We basically said, ‘Follow the law.’ And he said, ‘Kill them,’” Kelly tells them:
‘An Example MUST BE SET’
The pursuit of Mark Kelly in the military justice system sends a clear message to service members and veterans.
bit.ly
November 26, 2025 at 3:50 AM
Trump’s pursuit of Senator Mark Kelly extends the president’s retribution campaign to the military justice system, Missy Ryan, Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, and Nancy A. Youssef report.
“We basically said, ‘Follow the law.’ And he said, ‘Kill them,’” Kelly tells them:
“We basically said, ‘Follow the law.’ And he said, ‘Kill them,’” Kelly tells them:
Reposted
"You may be tempted to believe that “ending the war” is synonymous with “creating peace.” It is not.” Great thought experiment from @markhertling.bsky.social
A Letter from Clausewitz to Secretary Rubio
Channeling the author of ‘On War’ on the U.S. pursuit of peace in Ukraine.
www.thebulwark.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:22 AM
"You may be tempted to believe that “ending the war” is synonymous with “creating peace.” It is not.” Great thought experiment from @markhertling.bsky.social
Reposted
'There is no peace process. This is not negotiations over peace: it is the transmission of surrender demands from Russia with the active facilitation of the United States.'
Read @keirgiles.bsky.social analysis on the Trump administration's proposed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine⤵️
Read @keirgiles.bsky.social analysis on the Trump administration's proposed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine⤵️
Trump pressures Ukraine to accept peace deal: Early analysis from Chatham House experts
Chatham House analysts give their initial analysis after Zelenskyy was pressured by Trump to accept a White House plan to end the war with Russia.
www.chathamhouse.org
November 26, 2025 at 7:00 AM
'There is no peace process. This is not negotiations over peace: it is the transmission of surrender demands from Russia with the active facilitation of the United States.'
Read @keirgiles.bsky.social analysis on the Trump administration's proposed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine⤵️
Read @keirgiles.bsky.social analysis on the Trump administration's proposed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine⤵️
Reposted
Couple of thought-provoking but worrying pieces in the FT today. First, does China want to buy anything from anyone? Not really, no different then to the US or many others. The lure of self-sufficiency. Most worrying, why is this thought a surprise? www.ft.com/content/f294...
China is making trade impossible
Europe has nothing to offer and difficult decisions to make
www.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 7:04 AM
Couple of thought-provoking but worrying pieces in the FT today. First, does China want to buy anything from anyone? Not really, no different then to the US or many others. The lure of self-sufficiency. Most worrying, why is this thought a surprise? www.ft.com/content/f294...
Reposted
Barents Observer looked into the background of Denis, the new "doorkeeper" at Russia's Consulate General in Kirkenes. Guess what? 🕵️ 🇷🇺 🇳🇴
Meet Denis Kurilov, second person with an FSB background at Russia's Consulate General in Kirkenes
In Kirkenes, the Russian consulate increasingly resembles a branch of the FSB border service: staff without diplomatic status live in the consulate building and appear at official meetings and public ...
www.thebarentsobserver.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Barents Observer looked into the background of Denis, the new "doorkeeper" at Russia's Consulate General in Kirkenes. Guess what? 🕵️ 🇷🇺 🇳🇴
Reposted
For a decade, Russia has been seeking to divide Europe and America, to undermine NATO and weaken the transatlantic alliance. This peace plan, if accepted, will achieve that goal.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
The Murky Plan That Ensures a Future War
Who will benefit from the White House’s 28-point proposal for Ukraine?
www.theatlantic.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:05 PM
For a decade, Russia has been seeking to divide Europe and America, to undermine NATO and weaken the transatlantic alliance. This peace plan, if accepted, will achieve that goal.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Reposted
Trump’s 28-point peace plan with Russia “is misnamed,” @anneapplebaum.bsky.social argues. “It is not a peace plan. It is a proposal that weakens Ukraine and divides America from Europe, preparing the way for a larger war in the future.”
The Murky Plan That Ensures a Future War
Who will benefit from the White House’s 28-point proposal for Ukraine?
bit.ly
November 22, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Trump’s 28-point peace plan with Russia “is misnamed,” @anneapplebaum.bsky.social argues. “It is not a peace plan. It is a proposal that weakens Ukraine and divides America from Europe, preparing the way for a larger war in the future.”
Reposted
The climate science is clear: decarbonisation is essential. But will that hand power to Beijing?
✍🏼 @isabelh.bsky.social
✍🏼 @isabelh.bsky.social
China and the risks of renewables
Beijing’s dominance of clean energy technology offers an escape from dependence on fossil fuels—and a new kind of danger
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk
November 22, 2025 at 5:20 PM
The climate science is clear: decarbonisation is essential. But will that hand power to Beijing?
✍🏼 @isabelh.bsky.social
✍🏼 @isabelh.bsky.social
Reposted
I just dipped a toe in the cesspit that used to be Twitter, and I think the surest indication that the “28 points” were translated from Russian is the number of Russian mouthpiece accounts busy shouting, unprompted, that that is absolutely not the case and they were drafted in the White House.
There is plenty in the 28-point list of US/Russian surrender demands for Ukraine that is nonsensical, unenforceable, or so vague as to be meaningless. My favourite might be
“9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.”
It could have been written for maximum vagueness to wrangle over -
“9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.”
It could have been written for maximum vagueness to wrangle over -
November 22, 2025 at 8:01 PM
I just dipped a toe in the cesspit that used to be Twitter, and I think the surest indication that the “28 points” were translated from Russian is the number of Russian mouthpiece accounts busy shouting, unprompted, that that is absolutely not the case and they were drafted in the White House.
Reposted
Russia Rejects Trump’s Peace Plan, Says Only Full Military Victory Over Ukraine Is Acceptable
united24media.com/latest-news/...
united24media.com/latest-news/...
Russia Rejects Trump’s Peace Plan, Says Only Full Military Victory Over Ukraine Is Acceptable
A senior Russian official has labeled the US peace proposal for Ukraine as a provocation, insisting only military victory will suffice.
united24media.com
November 22, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Russia Rejects Trump’s Peace Plan, Says Only Full Military Victory Over Ukraine Is Acceptable
united24media.com/latest-news/...
united24media.com/latest-news/...