Álvaro Padilla Pozo
@alvaropp.bsky.social
Sociology Ph.D. student at Cornell. Spatial Demography. Health inequality. Climate Change. Heat waves.
https://apadillapozo.com
Ithaca, NY, USA; Alicante, Spain.
https://apadillapozo.com
Ithaca, NY, USA; Alicante, Spain.
Pinned
Álvaro Padilla Pozo
@alvaropp.bsky.social
· Sep 28
Assessing and correcting neighborhood socioeconomic spatial sampling biases in citizen science mosquito data collection - Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports - Assessing and correcting neighborhood socioeconomic spatial sampling biases in citizen science mosquito data collection
www.nature.com
🚨 New paper in @SciReports 🚨 with colleagues from Mosquito Alert.
We develop a methodology to identify and correct spatial sampling biases in mosquito citizen science data collection to improve high-resolution predictive maps.
We develop a methodology to identify and correct spatial sampling biases in mosquito citizen science data collection to improve high-resolution predictive maps.
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
Survey Statistics: random sampling is not leaving
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/16/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/16/s...
Survey Statistics: random sampling is not leaving | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
September 16, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Survey Statistics: random sampling is not leaving
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/16/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/16/s...
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
How has climate change shaped your lifetime of heat?
Younger people today are experiencing more extremely hot days during their childhood compared to previous generations.
Check out the new interactive tool by @climatecentral.org: climatecentral.observablehq.cloud/generational...
Younger people today are experiencing more extremely hot days during their childhood compared to previous generations.
Check out the new interactive tool by @climatecentral.org: climatecentral.observablehq.cloud/generational...
September 3, 2025 at 7:59 PM
How has climate change shaped your lifetime of heat?
Younger people today are experiencing more extremely hot days during their childhood compared to previous generations.
Check out the new interactive tool by @climatecentral.org: climatecentral.observablehq.cloud/generational...
Younger people today are experiencing more extremely hot days during their childhood compared to previous generations.
Check out the new interactive tool by @climatecentral.org: climatecentral.observablehq.cloud/generational...
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
🌡️ New global study: hot nights increase mortality risk — independently of daytime heat. 178 cities, 44 countries, 14M+ deaths analyzed.
Our new study published in Environment Int and led by Carmen Iñiguez and myself from the MCC Research Network.
#HotNights #ClimateHealth #climatechange
Our new study published in Environment Int and led by Carmen Iñiguez and myself from the MCC Research Network.
#HotNights #ClimateHealth #climatechange
September 2, 2025 at 10:05 AM
🌡️ New global study: hot nights increase mortality risk — independently of daytime heat. 178 cities, 44 countries, 14M+ deaths analyzed.
Our new study published in Environment Int and led by Carmen Iñiguez and myself from the MCC Research Network.
#HotNights #ClimateHealth #climatechange
Our new study published in Environment Int and led by Carmen Iñiguez and myself from the MCC Research Network.
#HotNights #ClimateHealth #climatechange
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
🍂 Aug-tober?
From the Upper Midwest to the Southeast, many are stepping into refreshingly cool late-summer air this week.
🔵 Temps 10–20°F below average—a rare late-August treat
The catch? A refreshing summer cool down like this is becoming less common for future summer fun 🔽
From the Upper Midwest to the Southeast, many are stepping into refreshingly cool late-summer air this week.
🔵 Temps 10–20°F below average—a rare late-August treat
The catch? A refreshing summer cool down like this is becoming less common for future summer fun 🔽
August 26, 2025 at 4:07 PM
🍂 Aug-tober?
From the Upper Midwest to the Southeast, many are stepping into refreshingly cool late-summer air this week.
🔵 Temps 10–20°F below average—a rare late-August treat
The catch? A refreshing summer cool down like this is becoming less common for future summer fun 🔽
From the Upper Midwest to the Southeast, many are stepping into refreshingly cool late-summer air this week.
🔵 Temps 10–20°F below average—a rare late-August treat
The catch? A refreshing summer cool down like this is becoming less common for future summer fun 🔽
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
🇪🇸 How is wealth distributed in Spain ?
This study, co-authored by G.A. Marrero @cmtneztt.bsky.social @juancpal.bsky.social & D.Petrov, is the first systematic analysis of regional wealth inequality in Spain.
Key findings in 🧵[1/5]
wid.world/news-article...
This study, co-authored by G.A. Marrero @cmtneztt.bsky.social @juancpal.bsky.social & D.Petrov, is the first systematic analysis of regional wealth inequality in Spain.
Key findings in 🧵[1/5]
wid.world/news-article...
New Spain Wealth Atlas: understanding regional wealth inequality in Spain - WID - World Inequality Database
New Spain Wealth Atlas: understanding regional wealth inequality in Spain The source for global inequality data. Open access, high quality wealth and income inequality data developed by an internation...
wid.world
June 26, 2025 at 10:49 AM
🇪🇸 How is wealth distributed in Spain ?
This study, co-authored by G.A. Marrero @cmtneztt.bsky.social @juancpal.bsky.social & D.Petrov, is the first systematic analysis of regional wealth inequality in Spain.
Key findings in 🧵[1/5]
wid.world/news-article...
This study, co-authored by G.A. Marrero @cmtneztt.bsky.social @juancpal.bsky.social & D.Petrov, is the first systematic analysis of regional wealth inequality in Spain.
Key findings in 🧵[1/5]
wid.world/news-article...
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
Forthcoming in the JEL: "Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner’s Guide" by Andrew Baker, Brantly Callaway, Scott Cunningham, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner’s Guide
(Forthcoming Article) - Difference-in-differences (DiD) is arguably the most popular quasi-experimental research design. Its canonical form, with two groups and two periods, is well-understood. Howeve...
www.aeaweb.org
June 24, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Forthcoming in the JEL: "Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner’s Guide" by Andrew Baker, Brantly Callaway, Scott Cunningham, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
It felt like a cool May, but only because we're frogs in a pot of water that is gradually boiling.
@climatecentral.org
@climatecentral.org
June 3, 2025 at 6:18 PM
It felt like a cool May, but only because we're frogs in a pot of water that is gradually boiling.
@climatecentral.org
@climatecentral.org
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
⚠️El calor de hoy no ha sido lo normal 🔥
Y este evento extremo es 5 veces más probable en un mundo con cambio climático que sin él 📈🌡️🌍
Y este evento extremo es 5 veces más probable en un mundo con cambio climático que sin él 📈🌡️🌍
May 29, 2025 at 8:31 PM
⚠️El calor de hoy no ha sido lo normal 🔥
Y este evento extremo es 5 veces más probable en un mundo con cambio climático que sin él 📈🌡️🌍
Y este evento extremo es 5 veces más probable en un mundo con cambio climático que sin él 📈🌡️🌍
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
Kowall et al. published a multi-analyst epi study on the effect of marital status on cardiovascular disease (link.springer.com/article/10.1...). What can be learned from this effort? Check out our new commentary! link.springer.com/article/10.1...
with @mendelrandom.bsky.social & Marcus Munafò
with @mendelrandom.bsky.social & Marcus Munafò
![What can be learned when multiple analysts arrive at different estimates
Kowall et al. (2025) have brought the multi-analyst approach to epidemiology, with instructive results. With this approach, multiple researchers analyze the same data set to answer the same research question. Or, at least, what appears to be the same research question. In fact, the very first paper that popularized this approach [1] has been criticized for using a vague research question (“Are soccer referees more likely to give red cards to players with dark skin tone than light skin tone?”), which apparently led the analysts to try to answer quite different questions—from a simple question about a bivariate statistical association to much more complex causal questions about racial bias [2].
In contrast, the research question passed on to analysts in Kowall et al. (2025) seems less ambiguous: Does marital status influence the incidence of cardiovascular disease? But less ambiguous does not equal unambiguous. Considerable...](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:gz53felr7btxgmbxae5aooxi/bafkreidvs4c7wvoh63tr2ptmvnnl5hya246ofttwyzlvotkmqhnpwgbf4a@jpeg)
May 30, 2025 at 5:56 AM
Kowall et al. published a multi-analyst epi study on the effect of marital status on cardiovascular disease (link.springer.com/article/10.1...). What can be learned from this effort? Check out our new commentary! link.springer.com/article/10.1...
with @mendelrandom.bsky.social & Marcus Munafò
with @mendelrandom.bsky.social & Marcus Munafò
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨
What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?
We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.
Two main contributions...
🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?
We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.
Two main contributions...
🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description
Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description
tinyurl.com
May 14, 2025 at 9:52 PM
🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨
What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?
We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.
Two main contributions...
🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?
We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.
Two main contributions...
🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
“I’ll just run this last robustness check and then the paper will be finished...”
May 8, 2025 at 7:47 PM
“I’ll just run this last robustness check and then the paper will be finished...”
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
[🆕RESEARCH] Increasing vegetation cover by 10%, 20%, and 30% could lower the global population-weighted mean temperature during the #warm season. These reductions could prevent approximately 0.86, 1.02, and 1.16 million deaths—corresponding to 27.16%, 32.22%, and 36.66% of all heat-related deaths.
May 5, 2025 at 8:47 AM
[🆕RESEARCH] Increasing vegetation cover by 10%, 20%, and 30% could lower the global population-weighted mean temperature during the #warm season. These reductions could prevent approximately 0.86, 1.02, and 1.16 million deaths—corresponding to 27.16%, 32.22%, and 36.66% of all heat-related deaths.
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
🔔 Call for Interest 🔔 – UPF DemoSoc is looking for senior researchers to join through Spain’s ATRAE 2025 programme. PhD before 01/01/2018 required. 3–4 year contract + long-term stabilization. If you are interested, send an email to: jorge.rodriguez@upf.edu. Deadline to express interest: May 9.
April 30, 2025 at 11:21 AM
🔔 Call for Interest 🔔 – UPF DemoSoc is looking for senior researchers to join through Spain’s ATRAE 2025 programme. PhD before 01/01/2018 required. 3–4 year contract + long-term stabilization. If you are interested, send an email to: jorge.rodriguez@upf.edu. Deadline to express interest: May 9.
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
My colleague Cristobal Young and co-author Erin Cumberworth just released their book on multiverse analysis, a set of tools that help resolve the "garden of forking paths" and "file-drawer" problems and, in the process, improve quantitative social & behavioral science.
Highly recommend.
Highly recommend.
April 19, 2025 at 9:52 PM
My colleague Cristobal Young and co-author Erin Cumberworth just released their book on multiverse analysis, a set of tools that help resolve the "garden of forking paths" and "file-drawer" problems and, in the process, improve quantitative social & behavioral science.
Highly recommend.
Highly recommend.
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
Putting together a list of demographers working on questions related to climate change and the environment.
Reply or like this post to be added.
Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.
go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
Reply or like this post to be added.
Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.
go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
April 16, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Putting together a list of demographers working on questions related to climate change and the environment.
Reply or like this post to be added.
Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.
go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
Reply or like this post to be added.
Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.
go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
Putting together a list of demographers working on questions related to climate change and the environment.
Reply or like this post to be added.
Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.
go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
Reply or like this post to be added.
Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.
go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
April 16, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Putting together a list of demographers working on questions related to climate change and the environment.
Reply or like this post to be added.
Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.
go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
Reply or like this post to be added.
Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.
go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
📊 #psy6135 #rstats Today's topic: Visualizing Uncertainty
Topics: Visualizing distributions, Error bars, Bayesian stuff, fitted curves, ...
Thx to @elibryan.bsky.social, @mjskay.com, @clauswilke.com, @cedricscherer.com and other folks I stole from.
💻 Slides-- friendly.github.io/6135/lecture...
Topics: Visualizing distributions, Error bars, Bayesian stuff, fitted curves, ...
Thx to @elibryan.bsky.social, @mjskay.com, @clauswilke.com, @cedricscherer.com and other folks I stole from.
💻 Slides-- friendly.github.io/6135/lecture...
March 14, 2025 at 8:26 PM
📊 #psy6135 #rstats Today's topic: Visualizing Uncertainty
Topics: Visualizing distributions, Error bars, Bayesian stuff, fitted curves, ...
Thx to @elibryan.bsky.social, @mjskay.com, @clauswilke.com, @cedricscherer.com and other folks I stole from.
💻 Slides-- friendly.github.io/6135/lecture...
Topics: Visualizing distributions, Error bars, Bayesian stuff, fitted curves, ...
Thx to @elibryan.bsky.social, @mjskay.com, @clauswilke.com, @cedricscherer.com and other folks I stole from.
💻 Slides-- friendly.github.io/6135/lecture...
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
New paper in @bmj.com. Ever been told ‘what does your DAG say?” or “show me your DAG”, or “ok draw a DAG” and not sure what that means or how to get started? Well buckle up, because Fernando Hartwig, @neilmdavies.bsky.social and I wrote an RMR on just this topic. www.bmj.com/content/388/...
Dags Yda Like Dags Mickey Oniel GIF
ALT: Dags Yda Like Dags Mickey Oniel GIF
media.tenor.com
March 26, 2025 at 3:47 PM
New paper in @bmj.com. Ever been told ‘what does your DAG say?” or “show me your DAG”, or “ok draw a DAG” and not sure what that means or how to get started? Well buckle up, because Fernando Hartwig, @neilmdavies.bsky.social and I wrote an RMR on just this topic. www.bmj.com/content/388/...
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words!
If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.
www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.
www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
Reviewer notes: That’s a very nice mediation analysis you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.
Mediation analysis has gotten a lot of flak, including classic titles such as “Yes, but what’s the mechanism? (Don’t expect an easy answer)” (Bullock et al., 2010), “What mediation analysis can (not) ...
www.the100.ci
March 20, 2025 at 1:40 PM
New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words!
If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.
www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.
www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
Delighted to share a new publication, with the amazing @kelseabest.bsky.social & Bishawjit Mallick, using pattern-oriented agent-based modeling to explore the importance of economic inequality in determining patterns of environmentally-driven migration in Bangladesh.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Economic inequality is a crucial determinant of observed patterns of environmental migration - Communications Earth & Environment
Levels of inequality within a community are important contributors to community-level patterns of migration, according simulations with an agent-based model of the influence of environmental shocks, l...
www.nature.com
March 12, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Delighted to share a new publication, with the amazing @kelseabest.bsky.social & Bishawjit Mallick, using pattern-oriented agent-based modeling to explore the importance of economic inequality in determining patterns of environmentally-driven migration in Bangladesh.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
I really liked this idea of using a histogram as a legend in a choropleth map (since land isn't unemployed; people are), so I made a little guide to doing it with #rstats, {ggplot2}, and {patchwork}
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
February 19, 2025 at 5:58 PM
I really liked this idea of using a histogram as a legend in a choropleth map (since land isn't unemployed; people are), so I made a little guide to doing it with #rstats, {ggplot2}, and {patchwork}
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
Our Super Bowl plan is watching American Psycho and eating eggplant parmigiana.
February 10, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Our Super Bowl plan is watching American Psycho and eating eggplant parmigiana.
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
The sex ratio at birth in Spain reached very high values (above 108-109 boys per hundred girls) in the early 1980s before returning to normal values at the end of the decade. Why?
February 6, 2025 at 4:27 PM
The sex ratio at birth in Spain reached very high values (above 108-109 boys per hundred girls) in the early 1980s before returning to normal values at the end of the decade. Why?
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
A summary of my thinking on shared prosperity, work and AI in ten bullet points.
January 14, 2025 at 6:02 PM
A summary of my thinking on shared prosperity, work and AI in ten bullet points.
Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo
These curves describe the relationship between longevity and income in U.S. states.
Historically these curves have shifted up. In the U.S., the 2019 curve lies *fully below* the 2010. That is shocking.
Whatever we are doing now may only entrench this concerning pattern.
#medsky #episky #econsky
Historically these curves have shifted up. In the U.S., the 2019 curve lies *fully below* the 2010. That is shocking.
Whatever we are doing now may only entrench this concerning pattern.
#medsky #episky #econsky
January 29, 2025 at 2:31 PM