Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
Associate Professor, Dept of Political Science at Michigan State University. Mostly tweeting about Michigan polling
Political science
56%
Sociology
31%
Pinned
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 4
Rx Kids | A Prescription for Health, Hope, and Opportunity
Rx Kids is the first-ever community-wide cash prescription program for pregnant moms and babies. Rx Kids provides all pregnant moms in the City of Flint with no-strings-attached cash of $1,500 during ...
rxkids.org
Proud to work with RxKids on this. Community-based cash transfers to childbearing mothers has huge health benefits AND looks to be a winner for keeping them politically engaged. More research to come: rxkids.org/new-research...
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Jun 12
Ah i was just speaking of the autocratic wonders of the MI county drain commissioner. This cost us over $30 million and was used to fund art through his wife's organization. www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/l...
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Jun 7
The Pentagon Disinformation That Fueled America’s UFO Mythology
U.S. military fabricated evidence of alien technology and allowed rumors to fester to cover up real secret-weapons programs
www.wsj.com
"The paranoid mythology the U.S. military helped spread now has a hold over a growing number of its own senior officials who count themselves as believers." www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· May 31
‘This must be resolved’: Hoitenga affirms Wexford County is not a sanctuary community despite DHS report
LANSING, Mich. — State Sen. Michele Hoitenga on Friday called for immediate action to ensure Wexford County is in compliance with federal immigration laws after it was recently identified by the U.S.
www.misenategop.com
Lol Wexford County got mistakenly listed as a sanctuary county by some random group a while ago and the Trump administration put them on their list and they are upset www.misenategop.com/this-must-be....
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· May 13
Good catch. But it is still much less likely to happen to a voter in Canada than be struck by lightning. Blais has a single vote deciding a riding as 1/25000. The chances of getting struck by lightning in a 80 year lifetime are 1/15000.
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Apr 14
I know, I have been looking!
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Apr 14
Loving the All Dressed chips in the store this past month because of the Canadian boycott of Frito Lay
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Feb 21
The AI race to the bottom for cheating student subs is strong.
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Feb 4
THIS MEANS (BANK) WAR! CORRUPTION AND CREDIBLE COMMITMENTS IN THE COLLAPSE OF THE SECOND BANK OF THE UNITED STATES | Journal of the History of Economic Thought | Cambridge Core
THIS MEANS (BANK) WAR! CORRUPTION AND CREDIBLE COMMITMENTS IN THE COLLAPSE OF THE SECOND BANK OF THE UNITED STATES - Volume 37 Issue 2
www.cambridge.org
Inspired by sovereign wealth funds, I was revisiting the evidence on the 2nd bank and Biddle v Jackson; and Big surprise the corruption was real: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 14
A violet levee
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 11
Party Nationalization and Institutions | The Journal of Politics: Vol 71, No 4
Party nationalization has two distinct components: the first is based on the degree of homogeneity in the geographic distribution of a party's vote, and the other is defined by the degree to which nat...
www.journals.uchicago.edu
FWIW, I think the comparativists have been right to go with different specifications for this type of analysis. There are some funky issues with using those lags. For example: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 8
My grad class is reading Steadfast Democrats for next week. I am seeing it as valuable to view in contrast of Latino vote trends
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 8
Both can be true
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 8
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Wants Fellow Democrats to Look in the Mirror
Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who is on track to win re-election in a rural Washington district, says her party needs to stop demonizing others and change the candidates it supports.
www.nytimes.com
So this helps explains why Gluesenkamp Perez didn't endorse her. Harris never talked to her. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/u...
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 8
Yes, the online model work does well showing recall of considerations is a bad way of understanding. Doesn't mean online is right though!
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 6
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in "beer" poll that predicted past winners
The question of who voters would rather have a drink with has been used to determine a presidential candidate's likability for years.
www.newsweek.com
Is there a better poll out there? Hoping we can put the beer item test to bed www.newsweek.com/kamala-harri...
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 6
Agreed, looking back at 2020 primary makes more sense than looking at the lack of a 2024 primary.
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 5
smidtc-electionscience / 2024-mi-turnout · GitLab
GitLab.com
gitlab.com
I guess I am out alone by having Michigan turnout going down this year. gitlab.com/smidtc-elect...
But data be what they be.
But data be what they be.
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 4
Annie, an Anisakis larva being zapped through the chest with lightning, is the mascot for a research project at Kumamoto University that uses electricity to repel parasites from Japan’s sushi and other raw food.
Grant proposal challenge unlocked - get funding for mascot.
Reposted by Corwin D. Smidt
Annie, an Anisakis larva being zapped through the chest with lightning, is the mascot for a research project at Kumamoto University that uses electricity to repel parasites from Japan’s sushi and other raw food.
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 3
Fluoridation Sculpture,
A view of the thirty-three-foot high sculpture, Steel Water, looking toward the southeast. The wave-shaped pieces of three-quarter-inch steel, representing flowing water, are painted bright blue and a...
www.historygrandrapids.org
Trump's final rally Monday is in Grand Rapids Michigan, birthplace of public water fluoridation www.historygrandrapids.org/photo/752/fl...
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 3
Based on a normal vote, campaigns don't matter county level turnout and partisan split estimate: Michigan's two-party vote split averages 54% D this year. All recent polls in Michigan (outside NYT/Sienna) have 1) Republican PID equal or ahead of Democrats; 2) Harris outperforming the PID split.
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 2
You can stop @egojunk.bsky.social from believing!
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 2
Those Michiana counties are very swingy.
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 2
Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, tied in Pennsylvania, new CNN polls show
Harris holds leads in Wisconsin and Michigan outside the margins of error, a new CNN poll found, while Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania.
www.usatoday.com
Just saw this Suffolk poll oversampled Kent (300n) last week under the claim it is a bellwether. Kent is the opposite of a bellwether! It is negatively correlated with state trends. www.freep.com/story/news/p...
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 2
ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net
If EPIC-MRA has Harris up 3 with a +1 Republican sample that's really good news for Harris. ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net/epic-mra/pre...
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 1
@egojunk.bsky.social you were right to give Hertel the 6 points vs Barrett
Corwin Smidt
@corysmidt.bsky.social
· Nov 1
However, the point is even in low turnout election Democrats are still expected to win. Only when assuming low turnout and Trump's 2016 margin, do the margins equate to zero and a slight GOP win.